Another spectacular day in the region with some high clouds coming through the region this afternoon. Overall this has been a wonderful last 10 days or so in the area.
After starting the month with a record low temperature (18°) we’ve been living large. The average high is around 64°, considering that through mid-November it should be closer to 55°…that’s not to bad.
Overall we’re running 4.5° above average for the 1st half of the month and today may add a bit more to that.
The weather has been very dry as well. So far just a trace of precipitation has been reported officially in Kansas City, which is sort of a rarity for the first part of November. After today’s nothing in the rain gauge this will be the 11th-driest start to the month.
This will change… temperature wise and rain wise.
One sentence forecast: More great weather today and tomorrow with more wind and clouds tomorrow
Forecast
Today: Mostly sunny and warm with highs near 70°
Tonight: Fair and pleasant with lows in the mid-40s
Tomorrow: Windy and warm with considerable high clouds. Highs near 70°
Friday: Mostly sunny and cooler with highs closer to 50°
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Discussion
Well, as I mentioned at the start of the blog, it’s mild. Not close to record warm, but still overall pretty good for November. It’s our 32nd-warmest start to November
After that pre-Halloween rainy period… it’s been dry again.
The driest start to November since 2007, with just a trace of moisture
There is a small chance of a few sprinkles or light showers tomorrow night, but if we’re waiting till Sunday for moisture, a few more of the years of traces above will be dropping out.
So far this is the 43rd-driest year through today with 32.78″ of moisture.
So what will change these two parameters? This:
See that swirl of the coast of California? That will mess us up later Sunday into Monday, and perhaps part of Tuesday as well. It’s an upper-level storm that is in a few pieces, but will be consolidating over the next 24 hours as it comes into California on Saturday morning
This means the first good rain in awhile out there…
The wildfire year out there has been much lower than average thanks to all the moisture. Even with it though, take a look at this from Cal Fire.
With that said though the five-year average is close to 1.6 million acres burned, so this year is about 20% of that total!
This rain will be helpful in containing some of the fires that are going out there now although there aren’t many.
So, good news for them.
Meanwhile that system will be weakening over the weekend as it comes through the western US and will likely shoot out a lead wave that will impact our region on Sunday with increasing clouds and a moistening atmosphere during the day.
As this happens some rain is possible Sunday into Sunday evening, although it doesn’t appear to be a lot at this point.
So we’ll be looking at two waves out there later Sunday: First, the lead wave heading into Nebraska, and the other the main wave moving south of the region, and then there is a third wave in the Rockies… and that is the problem for Monday.
Here is the forecast map for about 18,000 feet; the 500 millibar level showing these three features. The upper level low in NE, a wave in the southern Plains, and X marks another strong wave crossing the Rockies and about to dump into the Plains
Look at this unique model portrayal for Monday afternoon. Do you see what I see?
So now we have three things out there, and they will essentially be rotating around each other in a pirouette, and unfortunately it appears the MO may be the in the middle.
See how things rotate around each other before moving off later Tuesday? The problems are this will lead to a lot of “stuck” moisture in the region from wave number one on Sunday afternoon/evening.
That moisture will tend to rotate around us. Wave #2 in the southern Plains will allow drizzle and mist to be around on Monday and wave #3 in the Rockies will help to set up a wraparound area of light rains and keep a moisture laden atmosphere on top of the region likely into a decent part of Tuesday.
Hence my concerns for Monday and Monday night. It may not be a ton of rain, but it would be enough to make things uncomfortable to be outside for any length of time on Monday, and we all know what’s happening on Monday night in Kansas City!
This is one aspect of Monday… the next is temperatures, which should be in the 45-50° range during the day and potentially drop off a bit after that with slightly chillier air on the back side of the whole rotating series of storms spilling into the region.
So 40s for the game look reasonable… perhaps low-to-mid 40s.
What’s also interesting is about 4-5,000 feet up is that it should be snowing. IT does appear though that below that level it’s going to be above freezing so the flakes will melt before reaching the ground.
Of note about this set-up. Model data will never really handle the interaction of all these waves well, especially the spinning around each other part of things. So the timing on the rains for Monday will be a work in progress type thing.
The set-up is there for a drizzly/misty/generally damp type day.
There isn’t a true cold air connection behind all of this, so Wednesday, which is a big travel day, looks to be pretty ideal in the region as whole with temperatures well into the 50s with a shot of 60° possible.
Thanksgiving looks OK… pretty seasonable.
Perhaps colder though after that into next weekend… need to watch next weekend and into the last few days of November for a potential something something though.
The feature photo comes from Chris Scudiero. His mom Jamie sent it in.
Joe
