Temperatures this month for the first 12 days are running around 4° above average in Kansas City. It was a great day yesterday, and this week will feature temperatures above average all week long it appears.

The pattern has been dry since around Halloween, and that won’t change this week. There are growing indications that rain may arrive at some point later this upcoming weekend.

This will be a sign of some bigger changes that will be happening…one of those changes means rain…and another means some much colder air that could be an issue for the last week of November.

It is possible we may have some winter weather around these parts before the end of the month.

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One sentence forecast: Sunny and pleasant for the next 3 days with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

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Forecast:

Today: Sunny and mild with highs in the upper 60s

Tonight: Fair and cool with lows near 40°

Tomorrow: About the same

Wednesday: Highs approach 70°

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Discussion:

Blog writing has been tough for the last 2 week so with really nothing of note happening around the region from a weather standpoint. It’s been generally dry and mild overall and that really won’t change this week.

The blog writing though will be getting much easier though in about a week or so as more significant weather is going to be setting up in the Plains…and as we head towards the end of November…or at least the last 10 days…things are likely to be “different.”

Last week I showed you a storm complex out in Alaska. This complex of storms produced almost 30″ of snow in Anchorage last week over the course of a few days. This was record setting for them and more is on the way over the next week or so.

I featured that storm(s) because while it would be undergoing all sorts of transitions and evolutions…it potentially had a decent shot of changing our generally dry pattern locally in about 8-10 days…and now that is coming 6-8 days as things are coming together for the end of our nice November that we’ve enjoyed so far this month.

That complex of storms has sort of consolidated into this…off the coast of the western US.

That thing isn’t in any hurry to move along…it’s cut-off from the main jet streams to the north that could move it along quicker.

So this week there are actually 3 things that I’m watching. 1 is this system above…2 is another fast moving wave that will skirt the northern US but drag a cool front through the region for Friday into the weekend and 3 is the game changer wave that is going to likely create a whole new weather regime for the last 7-10 days of the month. I’ve labeled them for you on the map below.

It’s showing the pattern up around 18,000 feet up, roughly halfway up in the atmosphere. We can look for various dips and ridges more easily at this level and what happens up there does have a correlation to what can happen at the surface.

The map below is for Thursday evening this week.

Notice our Alaska storm mentioned earlier…#1 is still spinning off the coast of CA. That will come inland into CA on Saturday and then come into the Rockies Sunday morning and then come into the Plains on Monday.

There also is likely a piece of storm #3 that at the end of the week will be in Alaska that will get involved in this as storm #3 breaks up into pieces. A piece will dive into the Plains by early next week and combine with storm #1 and create a bigger storm closer to our region.

This has ramifications for us because it’s likely to generate rain. It appears Sunday may have the 1st chance of some widespread rain and depending on how that next piece from storm #3 dumps into the Plains for Monday may continue to produce rain in or near the region for early next week That obviously has implications for Monday Night and the big game here in KC.

Storm #2…the one in the map above labeled #2 is going to be a fast moving wave that will just drag a cold front through the region. There won’t be a ton of cold air with this though, probably a return to near or potentially slightly below average highs (low 50s are average this weekend).

Then there is storm #3…and that by the end of the week will be up in Alaska. This will also undergo evolutions BUT there some indications that depending on how these future pieces come together and where they go…that our weather here may turn dramatically colder next week at some point.

As with many of these colder season changes there is little model agreement. The EURO appears to go off the rails towards the end of it’s run while the GFS is like…no big deal at day 10.

As a matter of fact let me show you the dramatic differences…these are the operational runs side by side for next Wednesday before Thanksgiving. The EURO is on the left and the GFS is on the right.

They are different…a lot different. The EURO has this BIG dip in the Plain and that would help deliver arctic cold into the region for the middle of next week. Notice on the EURO the BIG ridge as well in Alaska and also Greenland. 2 ridges like that OVER the Plains system is a recipe for some bitterly cold air in the Plains.

On the right side we have the GFS which basically is a nothing burger for much weather excitement towards the holiday. They are actually similar with many of the features through the weekend but the GFS really dampens that off the west coast now system (#1) from the start of the blog. Regardless both models still bring in rain at some point on Sunday…and linger those chances into next Monday.

The real changes though regarding how this all evolves is what happens after this…before Thanksgiving. Because the GFS is so “meh” on things…it doesn’t deliver arctic air into the region because the flow is so flat and more west to east in the Plains. The EURO on the other hand is nasty cold. You can see the differences. Again for next Wednesday at 6PM…EURO on the left…GFS on the right.

Night and day difference. The map above shows the temperature anomalies up around 5,000 feet. IF it’s that cold up there…you can bet it’s darn chilly down here and vice versa (most of the time)

So which model is more correct? Likely neither one really. The EURO is generally on it’s own with what it’s doing while the GFS does have some support from various other pieces of data. It’s certainly something to pay attention too but the EURO to me at this point is just too extreme a potential solution.

The EURO ensembles are different as well holding back the big dip in the jet stream that the operational model dumps into the Plains region. With that said though they both have the possible Alaska ridge trying to form…and IF that happens…the colder solutions would be in play perhaps.

I do think that we will see colder air at some point next week but the extent of the cold shot is still not a confident forecast.

Like I said there should be a lot to write about later this week and next.

The feature photo comes from Jeanne Dupree Ambrose

Joe