It’s another beautiful day in the region with mostly sunny skies and pleasant temperatures as I start this blog. The dry weather continues but there is hope that perhaps tomorrow, and more than likely on Saturday, that needed rains will come toward the region.
That would be welcome because after today we’ll be close to 2.6″ below average for the month officially at KCI.
The new drought report does show worsening conditions for part of the Metro, so the rain will be needed and welcome, but there are a lot of things going on this weekend including the Plaza Art Fair and a big concert out at Kauffman, and both may be affected by the storm chances amongst other things happening around the region.
One sentence forecast: Mostly sunny skies today and warm with highs into the lower 80s.
Today: Sunshine this morning with partly cloudy skies this afternoon. Remaining warm with highs into the lower 80s. There is a small chance of a later evening storm with better chances south of the Metro it appears
Tonight: Partly cloudy with some scattered late night and early morning storms possible from KC southwards. Mild again with lows in the lower-to-mid 60s
Tomorrow: Scattered storms possible in the morning. Then partly cloudy and warm with highs into the lower 80s
Saturday: Windy and hotter with increasing dew points creating muggy conditions. Storms are possible, especially later in the afternoon or during the evening through 2AM Sunday. Highs in the upper 80s… winds gusting to 30 MPH
Sunday: Mostly sunny and warm with highs in the 80° range. Should be great for the game.
This is our second severe weather season, which sometimes we get and many times sort of eludes us. Typically this season runs through late October locally, but as I mentioned it hasn’t been as much of a thing around these parts, anecdotally, for awhile.
There is a set-up we need to talk about though for Saturday.
A cold front (weak) will be moving toward the region later in the day into Saturday evening. Ahead of that front, stronger south winds will start bringing up moisture from the south. Dew points will be increasing into the mid-60s and perhaps higher. Stronger south winds, gusts to 30 MPH, will be developing as well ahead of the front.
This will all lead to instability increasing in the region during the day.
It sounds like a spring set-up right?
As the front moves closer storms pop out towards the west of the region, toward central Kansas, sometime in the afternoon on Saturday and those storms move towards the ENE. With the instability in place, severe weather is on the table.
The main threats appear to be some larger hail and some stronger wind gusts with any of the storms. Some of the model forecast soundings, however, are showing enough wind direction shear in the lower levels, that it may not be out of the question a tornado could be an issue somewhere in the region as well.
That will be more dependent on IF the winds are more from the SE. IF so… that too could be on the table later in the day.
One model today brings dew points up into the 70s, which may be a stretch, but is worth noting
For the Metro that appears to be in the 4PM-10PM range. For NW MO is may be a couple of hours earlier.
Obviously with all the outdoor events happening in the evening on Saturday that may be bad timing. So it will be worth monitoring your weather app and watching radar so that you can be taking cover before the storms arrive.
I do have concerns about the Plaza Art Fair as well and the concert out at Kauffman Stadium.
Sunday’s weather is fine… so the Chiefs game looks good!
What is interesting about the overall pattern heading into the end of the month is that there really isn’t any cool air that is going to be tapped anytime soon. We’re looking at a mild finish to September in the big picture of things.
There may be a day or two with cooler weather, but just about every day into early October looks to be mild-to-warm. Remember the average highs are dropping. Today it’s 78° but in the next 10 days it drops to about 73°
Regardless of all of that… we need some moisture.
The latest drought report came out today and shows that areas within the Metro have degraded again.
On the Kansas side…
So many areas need some rain.
Of note also is the nasty drought helped along by a record hot summer for many areas of the deep south.
Also of note is a developing disturbance off the coast of the SE part of the country…
This system isn’t quite a tropical system but it’s possible it may act like one as it organizes and moves towards the Carolinas with winds and heavy rains along with very high seas off the coastal areas on Friday. It may transition into a tropical system though… there are still very warm waters in that area to try to help it along.
The feature photo comes from Sandra Cox out at Bill Cox Farms in Leeton, MO…from the past weekend.