It’s a bright Tuesday and the start of a new month in KC. November is here, and my feeling is that it will be a month of a lot of ups and downs, which is what November does around here.

We’re going to be on the mild-ish side of things for awhile to start the month. At some point toward mid-month there should be a pretty sharp cold air mass coming into the region. So let’s enjoy these really mild to warm days while we can.

The month starts with average temperatures of 60°/39°…and ends with the average high dropping into the 47° range with the average low of 28°. We, on average, lose 13° from the highs during November. We also average 1.1″ of snow.

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Forecast:

Today: Sunny and warm. Breezy in the afternoon with highs in the upper 70s. Winds gusting to around 25 mph during the afternoon.

Tonight: Fair and cool but OK for early November with lows in the 50s

Tomorrow: Windy and warm. Gusts to 40 MPH possible. Highs in the mid to upper 70s

Thursday: About the same with more clouds.

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Discussion:

October ended up 2.7° above average for the month and 1.54″ below average for the month for precipitation. We were 88° on the extreme warm side and 24° on the low side.

So far from 1/1 to 10/31 we’re 47th warmest in KC weather history…last year was warmer through the end of October. Eight other years have been warmest (this century) through the end of October.

We are 44th driest so far through 10/31 at 29.40″. Only 5 other years this century have we been drier.

So the “official” NOAA forecast for November is this.

We average 2″ of precipitation for the month.

Interesting to see that small probability of extra moisture from KC southwards. That should work out…I’m expecting a wetter than average month of November in the KC area.

As the temperatures get colder in the northern latitudes with the fading sunshine…and colder air masses building up…while the southern latitudes only slowly cool off…bigger weather transitions happen with an energized jet stream.

By the end of this weekend…some real cold air will be up across NW Canada while some very warm air aloft will be across the Great Lakes and eastern US into eastern Canada

5,000 foot temperature anomalies for Sunday evening

This will lead to some interesting weather across the US and Canada over the coming 10 days or so. That cold air in western Canada is going to need to be watched. Some piece of it may briefly come down into our region during the middle of next week with perhaps a more substantial piece of it coming towards mid month.

At least though for this week…it will be warm. No records…but temperatures will remain 15-20°+ degrees above average through Thursday and maybe Friday as well.

I wrote and extensive blog yesterday about the set-up for Friday and Saturday…and there hasn’t been too many changes really.

The data, though, continues to suggest a widespread significant rain still likely for the region…with many areas seeing at least an inch of rain with upside to 3″ in spots. So basically let me update the totals through the data early this morning.

Euro
GFS
ICON

EURO and GFS ensemble runs are solidly in the 1.5-2″ range.

There are slight position differences with the system coming out of the SW US over the weekend. The GFS takes it a bit farther NW of KC while the EURO brings it on top of the KC Metro on Saturday…a reason for the differences in the rain production from the model data.

At this point severe weather concerns are limited more towards the region west of KC…

Severe weather risk on Thursday

Severe weather risk on Friday

We’ll see how things set up over the next couple of days.

Dew points should get well into the 50s on Thursday and perhaps into the lower 60s on Friday. So you will feel a difference in the air later in the week with the strong winds blowing from the south.

A reminder that we set our clocks BACK one hour later Saturday night into Sunday morning. So the sun will rise Sunday at 6:51 AM and set around 5:12 PM Sunday evening so a lot of the tailgating will be after sunset…the weather though looks to remain mild by early November standards for the game.

Also interesting to note a late season tropical system that may become a hurricane as it heads towards Central America…this is Lisa.

There is another system moving into the northern Atlantic that may briefly attain tropical characteristics…that could become Martin.

The set-up though is still open to something else forming this weekend off the SE coast and off the Bahamas…that could be Nicole.

This is data just through 2015…there have been other systems in November after that…

We do average one tropical storm in November and with Lisa in the Caribbean that takes care of that. We’ll see if we add more to the tall

We average around 14 named storms per season…Lisa makes 12. Perhaps more in the next couple of weeks?

The feature photo comes from Seri Mills. We’ve had some great sunrise/sets over the last week or so.

Joe