We’ve definitely taken a bad turn in the weather around these parts since last weekend when we say temperatures in the 70s on the 5th. Since then…not good…and while there should be a warmer day or two this week, eventually, the overall pattern isn’t good for warmth.

A strong cold front will move through later Thursday, this should allow a nice warm-up on Wednesday and Thursday into the 60s (with an outside shot of 70s on Thursday) before another cold air mass builds in for the next weekend. There will be rain with the transition, which looks to happen on Thursday afternoon and then it gets chilly and blustery Thursday night.

Its just not a great pattern for sustained warmth. Temperatures that were close to 5° above average are down to less than 2° above average and today will whack more from that because the average high now is in the mid 50s

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Forecast:

Today: Clouds and cold with highs near 32°. Blustery as well

Tonight: Some clearing with lows down into the 20° range

Tomorrow: Finally some additional sunshine and closer to average with highs nudging 50°

Wednesday: Warmer and windy with highs in the mid 60s

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Discussion:

That was quite the U turn about a week ago…and we’ve had chilly weather since. Today the colder air continues to dump into the region. This started in earnest yesterday afternoon when temperatures started to drop off during the day, which always catches my attention (especially in March and April).

It’s a sign that the arriving cold air has punch and once the clouds moved in overnight…that’s really a bad sign for the following days weather.

Here is the satellite loop…and it’s not pretty for today.

The surface map paints a grim picture for the rest of the day for much of a warm-up. Temperatures are in RED…this is from 8AM this morning

So the question is can we warm up much at all today…and I doubt it. I’m not expecting much sunshine at all…perhaps some later afternoon breaks…with the colder air streaming in…IF we get to 32° that might be a struggle.

This actually might be Top 10 coldest high temperature day for the 13th. Here is the coldest highs for today’s date.

The good news as mentioned at the top is that it will warm up this week thanks to a storm system that will then chill us back down later Thursday.

This is associated with another slug of Pacific moisture that will hit California over the next couple of days. There is a wave in there that will come through the western US on Wednesday then zip towards the Plains on Thursday. The wave now is somewhere in the mess of clouds off of California towards the Central Pacific.

The disturbance will be in the 4 corners region on Thursday morning and then zip through Thursday night. At the same time a second wave will cross through the northern Plains…that is important as well because that will help to inject the cold air again on Thursday night into the region.

It’s a shot that likely will be unwelcome for most. You can see how this plays out by going up to about 5,000 feet and looking for the temperature anomalies…they are very apparent. Warmth ahead of the system(s) with colder air dumping in behind.

So Thursday afternoon we have something like this…

Then on Friday we have this…and that isn’t great for comfort for the Parade.

All those purples are cold temperature departures. Not great for Friday. Highs may struggle in the mid to upper 30s again with lots of wind adding to the chill

This next onslaught of moisture into California will worsen flooding there…more heavy amounts of precipitation are expected and they are already saturated.

The Sierras will get a bunch of snow again

This moisture over the last few months is now tipping towards record status…the moisture content of the snow is through the roof…ready to melt as the late Spring moves towards the area.

There was a lot of melt off below 4500 feet but above that there was a net gain in the snow on the ground. The maps above show the potential of another 5-8 FEET in the higher elevations

In Colorado…more good news for some of the regions out there.

This was from a few days ago…

Statewide…when looking at 152 sensors…the news is great for the moisture that will eventually work it’s way into the reservoirs…the key if for it to do things slowly and not fast. This is from Engaging Data

The red line is where this year is with more coming.

Trees are budding out now in a big way…some are getting ready to leaf out…and those leaves are in for a rude surprise.

It isn’t exactly great either down the road…the latest 8-14 day outlook taking us towards the end of the month

There are signs of moderation towards the end of the month for at least a few days. There aren’t signs of any appreciable snows locally though.

The feature photo is an old one…going back to May of 2011 from Melinda Warner who is a frequent blog reader when KC was in the “whales mouth” underneath a shelf cloud from a strong to severe thunderstorm. IT’s a reminder that severe weather season will eventually get here…as will spring weather.

Joe