We’ve had 6 straight days with rain in the KC area (at least a trace) and today may make it 7 straight. It’s been 5 straight with measurable rains (we had one day of a trace). That is the longest stretch since July of 2022. IF today we get measurable rain that would be 6 straight, the longest stretch since late May of 2021.
It’s been a wetter pattern for sure. The grass is happy and we’ve seen some nice (but need more) relief in some of the worst drought conditions. After a wet July for KCI, August is already up to .53″ which is above average for the 1st 3 days of the month.
There are more chances, today and tomorrow mainly. Then there should be a change in the air mass around the region, a replacement of the humid sultry air mass and ushering in drier air and a continued below average temperature regime into the early part of next week.
One sentence forecast: Another muggy day with some scattered showers/storms possible with highs in the mid 80s
Today: Variable clouds and muggy again. Some scattered showers or perhaps some storms this afternoon from KC northwards possible. Highs in the mid 80s with muggy conditions
Tonight: Partly cloudy with a small risk of morning storms developing. Lows in the mid 70s
Tomorrow: The threat of morning storms is somewhat iffy. Partly cloudy and muggy with highs potentially into the upper 80s. IF we don’t get the activity in the morning…that may allow activity in the later evening or overnight Saturday.
Sunday: Early morning strong storms are possible with lower dew points moving during the day. You should feel a difference in the mugginess during the later afternoon. Highs in the mid 80s
Well at least the temperatures have been somewhat reasonable for mid summer. The humidity (really the dew points) have been thick though with readings generally in the mid 70s and that has led to all the mugginess in the region lately.
The last 7 days have brought numerous areas of rain and storms into the region. Take a look a the estimated totals since last last week.
You can see the general arc of the rains around the heat core down across Texas.
In terms of anomalies…
A bit above average for us but you can see the 4-8+” totals towards central and eastern parts of MO down into NW Tennessee. By the way more heavy rains are possible towards eastern MO over the next 24 hours.
This morning there is an upper level disturbance in KS…and the radar as been more colorful out there with most of the rains sliding towards the north of the Metro.
It doesn’t appear as if the Metro will get much this morning from this. Maybe a few showers/sprinkles.
This upper level wave, generated from thunderstorms out across eastern CO last night is forecast to be into N MO later today.
As we become more unstable, with that wave helping to generate some extra lift this afternoon and evening, there may be some stronger storms nearby or north of here in the mid to late afternoon and evening, including a risk of severe storms, mainly north of here towards northern MO. Something to watch for later today.
There may be more instability as well towards central MO…so the SPC has put that area in a level 2 risk of severe storms as well. Winds and hail are the main issues there.
Data today isn’t so bullish about storms tomorrow morning which may affect the rest of the day tomorrow.
1) It could be hotter…perhaps closer to 90°…
2) There may be more instability building in the afternoon for some scattered storms…and
3) It brings the potential of stronger storms into play for later tomorrow night or early Sunday morning with another bow echo possible as storms come down the MO River Valley. These storms may be more on the severe side for parts of the area.
This will be connected to the cold front that should usher in the lower dew points and more comfortable air during the course of the afternoon on Sunday into Sunday night. That change of air masses should create storms locally. So that is something to watch for, I think the better chances may be early Sunday morning.
The SPC is watching the region as a whole with a level 2 risk of severe storms.
From there we should see some humidity relief move into the region.
OK that’s it for today. I may (or may not) get a blog out at some point tomorrow because I’ll be working the evening shows. The feature photo comes from Danny Mcnair