This is an exercise in science, gut, feelings and a bit of fun. As mentioned in previous blogs, trying to predict how much snow is going to fall in one spot (KCI) can be fool’s gold.
Snow averages each winter can vary by almost 12 inches from south to north just in our viewing area alone. So pinpointing one spot is tough as you might imagine.
See some previous blogs this week for more details regarding some of the things I’ve noticed especially.
So without further ado, let’s start with Michelle‘s thoughts:
And the team average:
We’ve already had .4 inch at KCI.
In all honesty, I’ve been in the 20-25 inches range for the last couple of months. I was wondering about pushing my thought to my high side range, but I am just nervous regarding the rest of the month and how much snow we may end up getting. I’m not totally convinced the drought will wane, though my feeling is we’re going to get above-average amounts of moisture.
I think the winter will be a battle with several rather strong cold air shots. For example, the one coming in later next week that should last for about 10 days or so, perhaps longer. But there will be a balance between warmer thaws that will allow us to challenge record warmth at times this winter if things time out correctly.
I think the winter will end up above average for temperatures in the end, and I’ll include the period from Dec. 1 through the end of February for those temperature thoughts.
January may be a milder-than-average month on the basis that the cold show coming next week lingers for about 10-14 days or so before we moderate as the cold air retreats back northward again for a decent amount of time in January.
In other words, I think the cold will be balanced by the warmer patterns overall.
My forecast lowest temperature of -9 degrees is a nod to the potential of some bitter cold air settling into the area during the middle of the winter. It’s seems to be getting tougher and tougher for us to plunge that low, but it’s not impossible.
Here are the coldest lows over the last 20-plus years:
The team average for the coldest low is -6 degrees or so. Not unreasonable. Low temperatures are tricky too, mainly because of winds and low clouds.
So that’s it for the Winter Forecast ’22-’23. We’ll see how we do!