Friday is the last day of the intense heat that has been baking the region over the last six days. It will certainly be more bearable out there on Saturday.
It won’t be cool, but it should be more seasonable. Hopefully we could see some rain as well at times tomorrow.
We saw some very spotty activity in the region on Thursday. Most areas north of I-70 saw nothing, but some areas south of there actually had some downpours in the mid-evening hours.
I felt that I was rewarded after putting in the work on Wednesday spotting the potential for the isolated cells to bubble up as I noticed some weaknesses in the heat dome that was slowly pushing away.
Today may follow suit as well. Random haphazard coverage of isolated cells that really could form about anywhere. Overnight a somewhat better chance of storms arrives in the wee hours of the morning to start the weekend.
This is the relief coming for the region.
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One sentence forecast: Another very hot day in the area with lowering dew points helping to keep heat indices in check along with isolated showers/storms
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Forecast
Today: The last really hot day of the summer it appears. Highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Areas from Downtown southwards 100-105°. Heat indices may not be that awful, but still about 3-7° above the actual temperature as dew points will drop into the 60s for many areas again. Isolated pop-ups possible in the late afternoon and early evening.
Tonight: Showers/storms possible later on as well. Won’t promise tons of coverage but it should be more than isolated. Lows in the mid-70s
Tomorrow: Rain is possible in the morning, but drier conditions are likely in the afternoon. Scattered storms possible south of KC though during the afternoon Not as hot. Highs in the mid 80s
Sunday: Should be better overall with highs in the 80° range!
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Discussion
Well yesterday was the hottest day in many parts of the Metro. We still haven’t hit 100° though “officially” at KCI this summer, and if it doesn’t happen today, it won’t happen this summer I don’t think.
The Excessive Heat Warning continues for one more day (today) before will will end tonight finally. That’s seven days of excessive heat going back to last Saturday when the heat and humidity surged into the region.
The nasty dew points have been the main issue with all of this. When they surged, the heat index went to record levels.
Yesterday though, the heat index started to come down a few degrees. The dew points were the main reason.
Temperatures actually were at their hottest level of the heat wave but again with dew points in the 60s and 70s… the heat index wasn’t as extreme. This was a sign of somewhat drier air thanks to SW winds pushing into the region.
Today should be about the same.
The front that’s going to help change things is on the map this morning.
In reality the better push of cooler air is lagging behind the front by about 100+ miles but it too will arrive tomorrow.
The remnants of Harold are moving through the central Rockies today with heavy rains in that area. Flood watches are in effect out towards Colorado in green while the heat alerts continue around our region.
How about this? Houston (Intercontinental Airport) tied its all-time high yesterday at 109° (records go back to the 1880s) and New Orleans tied its at 102°.
Other all-time records were tied in Louisiana and elsewhere in the deep south. Some were “only monthly” records.
Back to Kansas City with some amazing stats for the Downtown Airport. The Midwest Climate Center sent me some of this information.
“Yes, we have heat index calculations in the MRCC database for that station back to 1948. There is a 3-year data gap from 1965-1967 and a 4-year gap from 1969-1972 when dew point and heat index data are missing. There’s also a significant amount of missing dew point and heat index data in 1996. The rest of the record looks pretty good. For instance, you’ll see the all-time max heat index for KC of 120F was TIED on Aug 20, 2023 (previous times where the station hit 120F were June 27, 1980; July 12, 1995; July 13, 1995)
Also attached is the summary of days with heat index at/above 115F from 1979-2023. Measurements at/above 115F weren’t seen in the record until 1980. There were just 14 days prior to 2023 when the heat index reached/exceeded 115F. Certainly a rare event!”
I actually went back to another source and spent about 30 minutes trying to backfill the data that was missing and I found no other times where we had excessive temperatures + the extreme dew point combination that would affect the above stats.
So really interesting stuff there for Downtown KC with a longer POR (period of record) compared to KCI.
Thank goodness all of this is drawing to a close today.
Now this doesn’t mean it still won’t hot again… it likely will and the timing on that is for the Holiday weekend as another push of 90s are coming to start the new month.
One thing of note: Depending on the rain situation (how much) this weekend, we may really have baked out the soils next weekend with another heat dome builds into the region.
This heat dome will be similar in ways to what we’ve experienced this week BUT it won’t be as strong or as intense. So yes… we’re likely to be pushing 95° again into Labor Day weekend. Hopefully the dew points will not be as extreme (and I doubt they will).
So no we’re not done with summer, more to come. We really need this rain though this weekend because I doubt we get much of anything after tomorrow. Speaking of rain, can you see the effects of the heat dome in the next graphic? This is data through Wednesday.
The western US moisture was from Hilary… the southern TX and Rockies moisture was mostly from Harold.
That heat dome controlled the weather one way or the other for most of the country this week and it was centered on us for awhile.
Now though that heat dome is moving away and not as strong as a few day ago.
The moisture from what was Harold shows up in green above in the Rockies. This is from 18,000 feet but this is what it looks like via the satellite loop.
Hopefully overnight into tomorrow morning we get about 1/10 – 1″ of rain from this. We need it for sure after the last couple of weeks of dry weather.
Also as a reminder: If you plan on overseeding, be ready to really water next week with dry weather expected. The hot temperatures will not be helpful either when they return.
OK, that’s it for today! Let’s enjoy the weekend relief and the weather for a few days next week looks wonderful as well.
The feature photo is from Wes Lindquist out in Hawaii.
Joe
