KANSAS CITY, Mo. — After a perfect 10 weekend with cool mornings and mild afternoons, more of the same is coming for the next 24-36 hours before a bit more of a pronounced warm up spreads towards the region.

The weather was delightful, and once again, very dry. Highs this past Saturday were in the lower 70s then mid-70s today. We’ll creep up a few more degrees this afternoon.

The rain situation for the next few weeks is sort of critical. This is the wettest time of the year and so far it’s been not overly wet. Last Friday aside, the local area is getting minor rains, and even last Friday on the north side it was rather paltry, so the region is drying out to some extent.

Interesting, I’ve written a lot about the drought out in western Kansas. They’re actually sort of catching up out there these days. Today there is a disturbance that’s stationary out there providing some more rainfall in western Kansas.

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Kansas City Forecast

Today: Mostly sunny and pleasant with highs in the upper 70s.

Tonight: Fair and pleasant with lows in the upper 50s.

Tomorrow: Mostly sunny and a bit warmer with highs in the lower 80s.

Wednesday: There may be some scattered PM storms out there, especially on the Missouri side of things. Temperatures should be in the low to mid-80s.

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Discussion

There is no doubting this past weekend was wonderful. As I was driving around, there were a ton of graduations and graduation parties happening in the region, and I was so happy that all the activities outside were going off without any concerns for the weather.

As we head toward the holiday weekend it can be tough to remain dry through all three days. This is typically the wettest time of the year around these parts, really through the middle of June, where we can get some decent rains. This week will sort of be a minor test because the chances aren’t that great, although Wednesday could bring some rain into the region.

This will be connected to a weak wind shift that will be pushing from the east to the west. It’s not the greatest setup really. But with temperatures in the low-to-mid 80s, and a few pop ups out there, the outflow will potentially create additional storms around, which may help create some additional storms.

The chance at least is on the table.

Beyond that, something sort of similar can again happen on Thursday, but may be more toward the west of the region. Then heading toward the weekend, the better chances will be more towards central and western Kansas as opposed to eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

That may well be a setup for a dry holiday weekend with highs in the 80s.

The swimming pools will be opening up in a big way this weekend and we’re setting up for a great lake weekend as well.

This is at the same time somewhat concerning because as the title of the blog says this is the wettest time of the year. So when I see long-range model data that has this idea, that’s not great.

We should be getting 1.2 inches of rain on average in KC area per week. So even if a model gives us 1 inch or so in the next two weeks, that’s only 50% of average.

So over the next 10 days you can see where the rain anomalies will be focused. One area is out west in the western Plains down through western Texas toward that drought region out there. The other is in the southeast part of the country.

The dryness from the State Line region eastwards is certainly pronounced over the next 10 days. We’ll see if some localized areas can get some decent rains on Wednesday, but the coverage may not be that great.

With the lack of significant weather blogs this week will be spotty.

I’m hoping to make an announcement this week for those who need more critical and detailed weather information at a granular level. For example farmers, landscapers, and to some extent gardeners. We’re working on something special for you that isn’t provided readily elsewhere.

I also will be taking time off starting Friday through next week, so after another blog or two this week, that will do it for about 10 days or so.

The feature photo comes from Tedd Scofield who’s on eagle patrol.

Joe