Kansas City Weather: When will it rain, get cooler this week?

I’m off today but wanted to get an update out there since I’ll be tied up tomorrow morning, so I won’t be able to write anything up for you.

It’s a beautiful, crisp morning out there as the march to Fall continues. It arrives this Saturday.

This morning temperatures at KCI dropped to at least 49°… coolest since May 20th.

There were some impressive fast-moving storms on Saturday afternoon with lots of small hail in some areas. Many missed out, especially on the north side of the Metro.

The south side had rain totals near 1″ or so, which was most welcome. It came on fast as we expected. Now more areas need to get a bunch of rain, and that is going to be a tough proposition this week.

There will be some locally heavy rains out there but I’m not convinced that the majority of the Metro will participate in that.

There are other chances showing up this week, and perhaps the better chances wait will the first day of fall on a more widespread basis.

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One sentence forecast: Sunny skies and warmer with some smoke again out there today. Highs in the mid 80s.

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Forecast

Today: Warmer with smoke decreasing later today. Lots of sunshine and highs in the mid 80s

Tonight: Fair and not as cool with lows in the 50s

Tomorrow: Partly cloudy with some scattered storms possible later in the day or tomorrow night. Highs again in the mid-to-upper 80s. Windier too with gusts to 30 MPH possible

Wednesday: Storm risks may be a bit tougher and more focused south of the Metro. Potentially a much cooler day though with clouds and some showers/drizzle around from KC southwards. Highs in the 70s. Breezy as well

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Discussion

Got a note from the Spickard area in northern MO this morning of a low near 42°. Yup, fall is coming one way or the other.

For the next couple of days though there will be a summer tinge to the air. There is still a decent amount of smoke out there, and yesterday it was quite noticeable again with visibilities being affected again, too.

Not as bad as about 10 days ago but still noticeable, and some smelled it as well as the fires in Canada continue to burn and send smoke into the Plains behind these cold fronts, which are moving in more frequently as the seasons gradually change.

To be honest I don’t remember a time here when we’ve had this many days of noticeable smoke/haze out there from fires.

We’re had more and more of these days over the past 10 years or so but this year because of what’s happening in Canada. The smoke seems to be more of a factor in our skies, sometimes subtle, sometimes more towards the surface.

Western US fires aren’t that bad at all because of all the moisture that has been present since the winter… so that’s good.

The seasons change early Saturday morning. As we start fall and the nights get longer and longer in the northern latitudes, temperatures get chillier up there.

While this happens the temperatures in the southern latitudes cool off, but the warm ocean waters keep those temperatures from cooling off quickly. These changes allow the jet stream to strengthen in the atmosphere and that allows stronger storms to form and move across the middle latitudes.

These stronger storms generate stronger cold fronts and that means more active weather.

This week there will be a series of stronger low pressure areas up in central and northern Canada.

In the states we’re not there yet, but we’re getting there. Over the weekend a decently strong area of low pressure will affect the Plains, and that may be the best chance of some decent rains in the region as an upper-level storm develops and meanders around the region.

Before that though, there will be chances tomorrow. Tonight, a low-level jet stream will be developing in the Plains. This may create enough lift to generate some scattered storms as early as tomorrow morning, but as we heat up the atmosphere should become more unstable.

One issue that could prevent a lot of storm development though is a cap that may suppress development. There is a decent looking disturbance coming in from the Plains region, but the main focus to that may be more toward southern Kansas and southern Missouri.

So that sort of leaves us in no man’s land. That doesn’t mean it will not rain for some areas…but the chances of something widespread doesn’t look so good.

This disturbance coming in and bottoming out across southern Missouri on Wednesday may allow cooler weather to be an issue on Wednesday with the potential of showers/drizzle to be around for part of the day.

This combination will create a pool of cooler temperatures, and some areas may struggle to get into the low-to-mid 70s if that happens.

Then this developing upper-level low will gradually fill in and squirt away on Thursday.

Another system comes on Friday with another chance of some showers. Again, perhaps not widespread. Saturday may be our best chance of something more noteworthy with a chance of storms on a more widespread basis.

So that is the day that may help alleviate the dry stretch of weather on a more widespread basis compared to anything that happens this week.

So there are chances this week, but we may be waiting till Saturday for something more significant.

After a couple of hotter days through tomorrow, we may not have too much heat of note for awhile. We were 96° back on the 5th and IF that stands as the last 90° day, that would be a rare early LAST 90°+ day for KC. Perhaps the earliest last 90°+ day in 15 years!