Not too shabby out there this morning with some clouds on the north side as I start this blog, and bright sunshine on the south side.
Temperatures continue to be very mild to warm for this time of the year. Yesterday we hit 75°, falling a few degrees short of the record 78°. Despite that though, it was an unusually warm day.
Highs 75° or higher from the 7th onwards through the rest of the year are unusual. It’s happened about 18 times since 1990. That’s more than 1,750 total days, so it was an unusual day for sure… and wonderful.
Today won’t be terrible, but odds are it won’t be in the mid-70s locally. Those lofty highs are possible towards the SE of the Metro where highs again may surge to near 80°.
An area of low pressure will come right through the Metro and switch the winds toward the NW as the afternoon moves along. This will bring in more seasonable air into the region overnight into tomorrow.
One sentence forecast: Variable clouds and sunshine with more clouds in the afternoon from north to south with breezy warm conditions continuing, and a small chance of a sprinkle or two.
Today: Not too bad. Clouds will be an issue for awhile this afternoon (and for this morning NW of I-35). Increasing winds this afternoon and this evening with gusts to 25 MPH possible. Warm with highs in the upper 60s on the north side to mid 70s on the south side to near 80° SE of the Metro. There may be a few sprinkles or patches of drizzle around.
Tonight: Clearing out and cooler with lows in the upper 30s
Tomorrow: Partly cloudy, high clouds may filter out the sunshine with highs in the mid-to-upper 50s
Friday: Sunny and pleasant with highs in the 55-60° range.
This morning we start with a cold front that is moving toward the region. The 8AM surface map.
We’re still on the warm side of that storm and will remain there into the lunch hour when temperatures should max out before falling a few degrees later today on the north side especially.
Clouds are affecting parts of the area this morning as well… particularly toward the NW of the I-35 corridor.
This area of low pressure will slide through the region today. As it does so… we’ll eventually get onto the back side of the storm and the winds will switch toward the NW/N. This will usher in slightly cooler air today and cooler air overnight. So basically we’re coming back to average over the next few days.
Typically there should be rain with this transition. The green numbers in the above map are the dew points… the red numbers are the temperatures. The dew points are near 60°, which isn’t too bad for this time of the year, hence the “spring” feel to the air yesterday and today. As the front cuts into the moisture we should generate more low clouds.
This moisture though is only a few thousand feet thick. Above that it’s really dry and that won’t help creating any real areas of widespread rain. Again, perhaps a few patches of drizzle or mist, but nothing too problematic.
Temperatures over the coming days will basically be in the 60° range, give or take a few into the weekend, with considerably warmer days coming again next week.
There is no cold air to speak of for next week. Sure, the mornings will be chilly, but the afternoons look pretty mild and each day should be nicely above average next week. When I see this look for an average over five days…
That is a developing warm pattern that the models will underestimate for forecast highs locally.
I think delightful weather comes next week with a run towards or above 70° possible depending on the amount of fading mid-November sunshine we get to enjoy.
So the title of the blog is: When is the next big storm for the region? That is a good question.
We’re fortunate that we saw that significant rain before Halloween because it’s been pretty dry for the last 10 days, and that trend will continue through the end of next week, so at least for another week or longer.
There is a large and complex upper level storm in Alaska today…
This thing will spin around Alaska and the northern Pacific Ocean into Sunday, and then sort of wander down into the eastern Pacific into next week. From there though there are questions whether it will affect us. The GFS more or less just allows it to fall apart out there while the EURO does have a more significant system in about 10 days locally.
Since this is a Pacific system, and there is no cold air remotely nearby, this would be all rain IF it even happens, I think, and there are questions about that potential.
This is the overnight EURO model run… for next Friday night the 17th
Extrapolating from there it would affect us next weekend with decent rain.
We’ll see… that’s a long ways off and this complex Alaska storm will be undergoing numerous changes to its core over the next seven days, which will affect where it goes and when it gets there.
I think we should get something from this, but I’m just not sure what and how much.
To answer the question stated in the title of the blog… the next potential storm of any significance is next weekend it appears.
So, let’s enjoy the nice weather. The feature photo today comes from Brenton out in Blue Springs. He got himself a nice rainbow the other day!