Joe’s Climate World: What do you think about climate change? (WED-9/30)

Weather Blog

Good morning…a windy day shaping up for the area today with gusts to over 30 MPH possible as the morning moves along. Temperatures will be mild and then slowly trend down this afternoon as some cooler air oozes through the region.

This is the set-up for a potentially early season frost for Friday morning. There aren’t any real stats about when we have early or late frosts. Depending on the place…you can get front at 40° on the thermometer because sometimes the temperatures nearest the ground are colder than the temperatures at the height of the sensor. Low lying areas in particular see this occurrence and if you have a hilly area…you’ll see frost at the bottom of the hills where the cold air collects, since it is denser than warm air…it tends to drain to the lowest part of the ground.

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Forecast:

Today: Sunny and windy…mild as well with highs in the low>mid 70s but dropping a few degrees in the afternoon. Winds may gust to 30+ MPH

Tonight: Winds should drop off some…with lows 40-45°

Thursday: Nice but cool with highs 60-65°

Friday: Frost possible from the KC area northwards. Lows in the mid>upper 30s but some areas in northern MO may flirt with a light freeze. Mostly sunny with highs in the lower 60s. Clouds may increase towards the evening.

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Discussion:

More of a weather discussion coming tomorrow.

Today though I wanted to share some interesting poll results from a study released last week…the study was asking whether you wanted more or less climate change information in the media…and since that is my job…I thought it would be interesting to share the results with you.

This was a study completed over the summer by a variety of climate related entities including…Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication and Covering Climate Now.

Over 5700 people in the US were asked a series of related to their thoughts about climate change such as whether or not it was occurring…whether they were interested in the causes and a variety of other questions about the whether they wanted to know the effects on the local community. the USA and the world. It won’t be perfect…I think there was some modeling to fill in gaps in terms of locations “

“The estimates are derived from a statistical model using multilevel regression with post-stratification (MRP) on a large national survey dataset (n>5,700), along with demographic and geographic population characteristics.

For the model estimates, uncertainty ranges are based on 95% confidence intervals using 999 bootstrap simulations. These confidence intervals indicate that the 2020 model is accurate to approximately ±7 percentage points at the state level, and ±8 percentage points at the county and congressional district levels. Such error ranges include the error inherent in the original national surveys themselves, which is typically ±3 percentage points.”

Here is the link to the survey with more details on what I’m going to be visiting with you about on a local level.

So let’s try and sum things up with maps etc…

About 74% of the US is indeed interested in hearing more about whether or not global warming is occurring.

Overall in KS…about 70% were interested and in MO about 71% were interested.

When it came to the actual causes of global warming…nationwide about 77% were interested but in looking at the data for KS and MO…and comparing that to the national number of 77%…things were different.

Notice all the purple shading…this indicates parts of the state that were less interested compared to the national average. There are not a few counties in the rural parts of KS that are running 15%+ below the national average.

A note…even though that is a large chunk below the national average in the rural areas…a majority were still interested.

On the MO side…

Are you seeing a pattern? Notice how the cities of Lawrence…KC…Columbia…STL are all more interested than the nation average by a decent amount…but again the more rural areas aren’t as interested and in many cases (see southern MO) by a rather large amount

This “pattern: if you will shows up virtually with every poll question asked with this survey. The Metro areas want more information and the more rural areas don’t with regards to climate change.

Within the KC Metro area…77-83% from Lawrence east into the KC area…want more information about the causes of global warming. If you notice I do include from time to time some information about climate change within my weather segments. I’m not a big fan of model data and forecasts for x number of years down the road…I’m more interested in actual data…data that, to the best of my knowledge hasn’t been manipulated to prove things one way or the other.

Trust me there are opportunists on both sides of this discussion and I see it almost daily in my twitter feed. Both sides will cull out the numbers that “seem” to suit them the best…perhaps using comparison information to show differences from one time period to the other time period and the base comparison is decades old…

I try to not show that to you…

Anyway…it’s an interesting study and one that I wanted to write about. Again see the link above for the full study, the questions asked, and the various maps that are available in a pull-down style and see where you are and what some thoughts of your neighbors are when it comes to this discussion.

The feature photo comes from Renee Jobe. I believe it’s a white hickory tussock moth caterpillar. It’s not poisonous but you don’t want to pet them…those little pieces of fuzz and get stuck on your skin and be an irritant.

Joe

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