Joe’s Weather Blog: A close call for rain ahead (MON-11/22)

Weather Blog

Our weather hasn’t been too bad lately although we are seeing a lot of wind around these parts as we keep moving different air masses around the region. Each time a decently strong area of higher pressure moves in…and it’s corresponding cooler air mass…the winds are increasing.

On the opposite side of that is when those same high pressure areas move away and allow another front to move in. This increases the south and southwest wind component…and that’s ahead for tomorrow into Wednesday afternoon.

More wind…and more temperature changes. It’s not unusual for us to have a tougher time getting moisture during this time of the year. We average around 2″ in November and IF we miss out on Wednesday night…the one good rain we got on the 10th will about do us it appears.

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Forecast:

Today: More afternoon sunshine but a pretty cloudy morning. Highs in the upper 40s

Tonight: Fair and seasonable with lows in the 32° range

Tomorrow: Turning windy and warmer with highs approaching 65°. Windy in the afternoon especially with gusts to 30 MPH continuing at night as well with mild overnight readings

Wednesday: Increasing clouds and warm…highs again in the mid 60s.

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Discussion:

Only a couple of blogs this week…then I’ll be taking off for the holiday and into Wednesday of next week…so no blogs from Thursday through next Wednesday. Maybe I’ll finally get around to getting some random winter thoughts out there for you on Wednesday’s blog.

So far this month…we’re still running a bit ahead of average for moisture. While we’ve only had a trace of snow…we’ve had about 1.5+” of rain…that was mainly on the 10th. November roughly averages about 2″ of moisture so the dry stretches aren’t too unusual.

These strong areas of high pressure that build into the Plains shoves the moisture all the way down towards and sometimes off the Gulf Coast. This morning for example the best dew points are wayyyyyy down there.

All that moisture takes some time to come back northwards…See the near 70° dew points in the Gulf of Mexico? That is the richer moisture.

As an area of higher pressure moves away tonight…the winds will increasingly turn towards the south tomorrow and increase in strength. Remember the air in and around high pressure blows outwards…and in a clockwise manner. So what is too our south and southwest will be drawn northwards after time. So tomorrow afternoon the dew points are starting to trend upwards.

3PM Dew points Tuesday

And then by about the same time on Wednesday thanks to another day of south winds…dew points approach 50° and perhaps higher south and southeast of KC. Areas farther north and west of KC not so much.

3PM dew points on Wednesday

Add in a front that will be moving into the area later Wednesday…

Surface map at 3PM Wednesday

And there is a recipe for rain BUT….

The front will be moving through KC before the rain has time to get together…we’re right on the northern edge of this…

EURO rain total for the 12 hour period ending at 6AM Thursday

Here is a close up…

Same as above

Now the GFS…

Same thing except about a county or two farther north

The end result is that some rain is possible for parts of the Metro Wednesday evening. Odds favor the higher rain chances on the south and east side of the Metro into central and southern MO. We’ll have to watch this for any adjustments….since we’re right on the ragged edge of things locally.

IF the front slows down by a couple of hours and allows a pinch more moisture to creep northwards…then we may see the rain creep a bit father north. Whatever we get though won’t be too much…likely less than 1/10″ or so. You can see areas from near the Lakes and southwards get more of the rain.

There will also be another air mass change…from mild weather on Tuesday and Wednesday…

6PM Temperature anomalies for Tuesday

To colder weather for about 48 hours on Thursday into Friday morning

6PM Thursday temperature anomalies

Already though you can see the warmer air returning towards the western Plains and that warmer weather will move on top of us heading into the weekend with 50s and 60s possible once again into Saturday.

A few other random things…Denver…still waiting on their 1st accumulating snow…and now they’re setting records each day as typically by now they’ve had measurable snow. The average date for their 1st measurable snow is actually October 19th…the previous longest wait time was November 21st. So here we are on the 22nd and nothing.

Graphic via Chris Bianchi

So just for the heck of it…let’s see how we fared for snow in the years that they waited so long.

1931-32: 10.5″ (N/A)

2016-17: 4.9″ (LN)

1894-95: 13.7″ (N/A)

2010-11: 36.9″ (LN)

1988-89: 6.9″ (LN)

1987-88: 26.3″

1902-03: 25.3″ (N/A)

2008-09: 14.6″ (LN)

1964-65: 29.8″ (LN)

1944-45: 15.3″ (N/A)

So 4 years above average (18.2″) in KC…with 6 years below average…nothing overly conclusive. I also added in the La Nina (LN) years. Data is reliable starting in 1950…so the years before that I put a (N/A) in the category. This though is interesting because we are in another La Nina year…

Anyway just sort of caught my attention. There are two snow totals that are awful for snow lovers and 2 others that make snow lovers happy…and sort of a 3rd too I guess. So really inconclusive for a connection to us…just thought I’d do the exercise though.

The feature photo comes from Kathy Hinkle out towards Frisco Lake. Nice day for a paddle (maybe not so much today though)

Joe

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