Joe’s Weather Blog: A rainy day (WED-1/6)

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Getting tough to see how we’re going to get anything wintry out of this system today or tonight. Not surprising really. Although there is a risk of at least a few flakes overnight, this just isn’t going to come together for snow lovers.

Temperatures this morning are near 40°…the air above us is well above freezing, closer to 50° a few thousand feet above us as a matter of fact. It just really won’t be conducive to snowflake production through the day and mostly through the night. Then when it’s sort of ready for snow production the system is moving away from the region tomorrow morning.

So the stars aren’t aligned right for this event. The moisture though is decent with this…over 1/2″ in spots in eastern Kansas, although the farther east you go…amounts will drop to near nothing.

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Forecast:

Today: Rainy…although mostly dry near and east of 65 highway. Temperatures remain pretty steady near 40° or so.

Tonight: Rain ends overnight. There may be a few flakes at the end south of the Metro. At this point, accumulations will be tough to come by I think. Temperatures in the mid 30s.

Tomorrow: Cloudy and chilly with temperature in the mid 30s.

Friday: No change. Gray with temperatures in the lower 30s. Maybe a few flurries.

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Discussion:

A wet day for many areas from Kansas City westwards as a train of south-to-north moving rain is coming through the area.

This rain is concentrated on the State Line and will slowly later today wrap towards the northwest around a developing storm towards the south of the region.

Temperatures in the atmosphere this morning are mild. Even at the surface, we’re still around 40° and that isn’t going to change much today. Tonight, temperatures will drift down a bit and the air aloft will slowly cool down but still struggle to drop below freezing.

Areas towards the southwest of KC may drop a bit more and perhaps be cold enough to generate snow production. Odds are it won’t be much but there might be enough southwest of KC to possibly create a slushy accumulation.

From there though, the set-up is just gray and chilly and for days it appears. It’s not unusual for us to have long gray stretches in the winter…we’re sort of due for this and it appears to be setting up for a stretch now.

Cold damp air won’t scour out for a few days. And with temperatures struggling to make it to around 35°…it won’t be pretty out there. There is seemingly a bit of a push of even chillier air just above the surface on Friday that may create a few flurries somewhere out there. At this point no accumulations of consequence are expected.

Weirdly though, because of the low gray clouds, temperatures at night will likely be not as cold as average. This means temperatures may stay in a pretty small window between lows and highs for a few days. Sometimes there are “sucker” holes that develop that can create a few headaches at night or in the day with temperature prediction, but we’ll deal with this as it comes.

Right now though, it appears a 2,000 to 3,000 foot deep layer of moisture will be with us…and that may be tough to break up for any length of time. The winds above that layer and the air above that layer is dry and with the wind just above the surface around 10-20 MPH. There may be a few breaks in the clouds every so often. It may not be until early next week sometime before we can really break out for any length of time.

There are some signals for a potentially colder blast of air to be an issue here towards the mid to late month. There are signs of some pretty chilly air being formed in Canada and the northwest territories and releasing into the central and/or eastern U.S. When and how much remains to be seen. Perhaps an opening salvo to a more significant change in the weather down the road.

Next week though might trend milder, perhaps our “January Thaw” week?

We’ll see what happens beyond that towards the back half of the month.

The feature photo comes from Stacey Rodina from the Linn Valley Lakes area near LaCygne.

Joe

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