The day has started cloudy for many areas as expected with a cluster of storms south of the Metro into the Lakes region and southern MO.

These are associated with a disturbance that was born in eastern Colorado yesterday that triggered storms there and through SW KS as it started moving eastwards. The clouds are the main issue for the KC Metro area this morning at least. They should thin out as the day moves along.

Hotter weather is still expected but today will be the hottest day over the next 5-7 days or so. Cooler days are coming and you’re really going to feel it over the weekend. Saturday will not be pleasant by May standards…but Sunday will be the better of the two weekend days.

Here’s something interesting…and I doubt we drop this low BUT on Sunday (and for that matter on Monday) the record low is 41°…set back in 1963.

As I was digging on that data yesterday I was thinking to myself…1963…what is that so familiar? Well remember last week when we were in the lower 90s and tying or challenging record highs? I believe there was one day in there that the record was indeed from 1963!

An amazing coincidence.

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Forecast:

Today: Thinning clouds and turning windy. Winds may increase to 15-25 MPH during the afternoon especially. Highs in the mid 80s

Tonight: Fair skies and mild…lows remain in the 70s

Tomorrow: A cold front moves in 1st thing in the morning with a band of clouds…perhaps a few sprinkles…then turning more sunny and breezy. Temperatures will drop into the 60s before rebounding into the low to mid 70s in the afternoon. Overall a nice day.

Saturday: Not nice with rain developing later Friday night and continuing into Saturday. Mostly light with occasional moderate areas. Temperatures go nowhere…highs only in the mid 50s or so.

Sunday: Nicer…chilly for May in the morning…mid 40s…with highs in the 65-70° range in the afternoon.

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Discussion:

Hey it could be worse…have you heard about the craziness in Colorado these next two days?

Today it will be hot and windy. Temperatures will be well into the 80s and there will be a lot of wind. The drought out there is still an issue too.

That’s a bad combination. That means fires and they’ve already have had some bad ones this Spring. Today could be another active day.

The thing is…the switch tomorrow is going to be startling. Colder air moves in tonight…so instead of 80s/90s

tomorrow it’s in the 30s and 40s

and then it gets colder tomorrow night…that set’s the stage for snow!

11PM forecast radar for Friday night

The mountains may get nailed with over 1-2 FEET of snow…

Denver might be in that 2-6″ swath.

These extremely late season snows can be fickle and temperatures are critical…but with a bulk of it at night…it should have an easier time of sticking.

The bigger concern is that with all the trees leafed out now…this could lead to a lot of tree limb damage and then corresponding power outages.

These very weird late season snows have happened before out there…here is a look at the snows of 1/10″ or more from the 15th onwards…

Back in 2019…they had almost 4″ over 2 days there.

Still though pretty impressive. IF they can avoid the power outages…the moisture I’m sure will be welcome for the region though.

Around here…the same cold air mass will ooze towards us as the cold front moves into the region in the morning tomorrow. Now initially the air will really just be seasonable behind the front and the May sunshine in the afternoon will help us out but overnight clouds will thicken as the winds above the surface are more from the south and stronger. This is called overrunning and that leads to rain.

Rain falling into a cooler air mass…means Saturday looks pretty miserable I think and a real struggle to get much above 55° or so. In reality we may actually have an “official” high of 57-62°+ or so because whatever we are at 1AM or so may be the high for the day (same for tomorrow too).

It may not be the coldest high for 5/22…but it may be pretty close. Here are the coldest highs for that date.

For Sunday the focus is on the chilly morning…although I don’t think we’ll get this cold…the record is 41°

The bluegrass especially will love this weather as it is growing like crazy right now.

Additional rains are likely later Monday and Tuesday next week followed but a warmer and more humid stretch of weather later on next week heading into the holiday weekend

There are no real strong severe weather risks showing up until perhaps sometime next weekend…maybe for the holiday itself to finish the month of May.

Just another weird severe weather season around here. I think I’ve been saying that for the last few years too.

We’ll see if early June ramps up regarding that.

By the way…this morning’s disturbance moving south of the area…is pretty neat to look at on the satellite animation…

The feature photo is a neat one from Austin Hamilton up in IA

Joe