Joe’s Weather Blog: Active week with a sharp push of chilly air (MON-11/8)

Weather Blog

Remember last week I wrote…I think on Tuesday…about how the models were underestimating the warmth and how I felt that temperatures would be so much warmer than the models suggested. I showed how our history of set-ups like what we saw yesterday and are seeing today leads to temperatures warmer than many forecasters think can happen. Well BOOM! 73° yesterday and we may get close to that again today.

Another thought that was going through my head last week when predicting the 70s…it’s SUPPOSED to happen. Look at this next chart…showing the last days with highs at least 70°…look at all the days in almost mid November. So you set up the atmosphere correctly…and you use some history to guide you…and you nail a forecast.

Yesterday we had 30+ MPH wind gusts that enabled us to “mix” the atmosphere and warm things up dramatically. This is what I was thinking would happen. Today we don’t have those strong winds though and we also have some incoming clouds that could keep us closer to 70° but still…great weather for November.

A cold front, one of several coming, will change our weather starting tomorrow.

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Forecast:

Today: Variable clouds with more sunshine later this afternoon. Highs around 70 or perhaps 72°

Tonight: Partly cloudy skies and still mild with lows in the 50s

Tomorrow: Not as warm but still reasonable with highs in the lower 60s

Wednesday: Increasing rain chances, heavier later in the day/night. Highs in the 60s. There may be some thunderstorms as well.

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Discussion:

This should be an interesting week of weather around here. Our mild flow of air will be shunted away later Wednesday and chillier weather will rush in behind a seasonably strong cold front that will be moving through the region. It looks like the bulk of the coolest air will reman more towards the north of the area and WNW winds will moderate the cooler air coming our way to some extent with downsloping winds and sunshine expected on Thursday.

What happens to get there though is a bit more significant. During November we only average about 2″ of moisture. This is mostly rain but typically there would be at least a little snow to contribute to the 2″. In May and June we get closer to 5 1/3″.

We could get a bunch of this in about a 12 hour period…

Let’s set this up…this morning we continue to have a nice flow of southerly air. This is bring more above average temperatures into the region today and it’s also slowly bring the dew points up…which should accelerate overnight into tomorrow.

The cold front to the west of the region will be moving into the area early Tuesday and will slowly usher in a cooler air mass tomorrow. Right now though while clouds are expected…they shouldn’t be too thick into tomorrow, in other words we should still start mild in the morning and with some sunshine and a limited push of cool air we should bounce back into the lower 60s tomorrow afternoon I think.

The front itself will sort of run out of push towards the Lakes region…it sill stall and then retreat back northwards on Wednesday morning. That will once again place us in milder air BUT there may be some lighter showers/drizzle around as this occurs to start Wednesday.

Then as the stronger cold front comes into the region…later Wednesday afternoon…we should see some decent rain production out of that…and that front may have at least some instability to work with as it approaches the KC Metro area later in the day. So some thunderstorms are certainly possible with that. Right now I don’t anticipate severe weather with this front though it’s something to watch just in case a storm or two can get some hail going.

The rain amounts look to be in the 1/2″ to 1″ range as an average with some areas getting a bit more perhaps depending on how quickly things move along. This will be a progressive front though so things should shut down rather quickly I think.

This is also being driven by a strong upper level storm coming across southern Canada and then dropping towards the Great Lakes (decent snows likely up there with the lake effect kicking back in). As we go up to about 18,000 feet or so you can see the progress of this system.

Behind that system is a decent push of chilly weather. Let’s go to 3,000 feet and show you that push. Notice though that the “main” thrust of the chilly air is across the northern Plains/upper Midwest and into the Lakes region. We sort of “dip” into it then it releases pretty quickly.

For timing…12Z is 6AM…0Z is 6PM…18Z is 12PM and 6Z is 12AM

So chillier and with the winds going Thursday into Friday it will feel cooler for sure. We should get a reinforcing shot of cold air on Friday setting up a pretty chilly morning on Saturday (20s). Still a muddled weekend though for temperatures. There may be another shot of cool air on Saturday night.

Right now it appears there should be somewhat milder air early next week before perhaps another shot of cooler air after that.

It appears we’ve entered the up and down portion of the weather pattern now for awhile.

I’m not sure we can get into the 70s again next week…but IF there was a chance…let’s watch Tuesday and Wednesday for the opportunity.

Our feature photo comes from Kathy Hinkle. She took advantage of the nice weather to get out in her canoe!

Joe

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