KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Well at least it’s not raining… nor will it for about the next 48 hours or so (although if you’re reading this in the afternoon that window may be shrinking). The sun is out, and aside from the cirrus clouds that are filtering the sunshine, it’s a nice and cool morning in Kansas City.

On that note, temperatures for the early part of June are likely to be mostly below average. Not a terrible thing as we start thinking more and more about heat and humidity, but the pattern setting up isn’t an overly hot one. Every so often it tries but the risk of storms and rain will knock down the warmth.

Cooler days in June, longer term, typically mean rain, and that’s coming back starting Saturday and the chances will linger almost day to day for awhile.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Kansas City Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny and pleasant. Highs in the mid-to-upper 70s.

Tonight: Clear skies and cool with lows in the lower 50s.

Tomorrow: Sunny and milder with highs near 80 degrees.

Saturday: The rain chances may start increasing in the afternoon. Cool with highs in the mid-70s.

Sunday: Scattered storms are possible but perhaps not as much coverage as Saturday. Highs near 80 degrees.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Discussion:

Thought we’d start today with a look at the drought monitor. Usually I show this to show increasing dryness in the region. Not his time though.

Notice the void of drought conditions for most areas east of Manhattan, Kansas, all the way to the eastern U.S. There are some spots along the eastern Carolinas and New England that are dealing with drought though. The real troubles are the western half of the country.

In Missouri, this is a non-issue right now. In Kansas, it’s a bit better than it’s been, but still a significant issue in western Kansas.

The system from the last few days though did help out a bit.

Here is some data from the Kansas Mesonet. This is through Tuesday.

So even with all the rain, western Kansas just can’t catch up.

May was wet for many, but perhaps not as much towards the east of the metro however.

Last 30 days of precipitation anomalies

As I mentioned to start the blog, at least the first part of June won’t exactly be broiling and should trend below average overall.

That’s a pretty stark forecast to start “summer”.

Usually that means rain and we’re setting up to be in the “zone” of numerous rain chances over the coming 1-2 weeks or so. It won’t rain every day. There will be a day or two here and there with no rain. The trick on all this is that one’s days rain, perhaps a thunderstorm complex will affect the next day or two’s chances. So it’s going to be tough to be as specific as I’d like to be with this pending setup.

The models will be able to show us potential, but to have confidence in the day-to-day outcomes is probably not going to be the wisest path at this point either… not when the “one day affects the other day” mantra is out there.

The ensembles show the potential. First the EURO:

(Over the next 15 days)

And now the GFS:

June is a rather wet month here, second to May and not by a lot either. The first half is on average pretty wet and we’re set up to get rain in various waves.

As mentioned the specifics though on who gets the most rain from this will be worked out. The models overnight have this rough idea for who gets the most.

First the EURO:

Perhaps favoring more southeast Kansas and southern Missouri
GFS with the same sort of idea.

Both ensemble models though for the next couple of weeks do show appreciated rains out in the drought areas of the western Plains.

This won’t come all at once. It will be spread out, but it won’t really allow our soils to totally dry out either for any real length of time.

Speaking of rain, the hurricane season started yesterday and we have our first candidate heading towards Florida this weekend.

There is a system that is the remnants of what was Agatha when it hit Mexico a couple of days ago from the Pacific side. It crossed through Central America and is re-emerging off the Yucatan Peninsula.

As it moves towards the northeast towards Florida, it’s expected to try to organize. It may or may not become a new tropical storm (IF it does it becomes Alex), but regardless a LOT of rain is expected in southern Florida this weekend.

It’s not totally unusual to get a named storm in June, but they’re not common either.

OK that’s it for today. The blog tomorrow will be a mid-afternoon one.

Hey, did you catch the rainbows last night, mainly on the Missouri side with the departing sprinkles and light showers. Emilee Grooms out of Lathrop, Missouri, sure did. Her grandmother Darcy sent this to me.

Joe