These last few months have been interesting. Dry…wet…dry. In June…we had about 3 1/3″, this was below average for what is one of two of the wettest months. Then from July to August 13th we had almost 10 1/4″ of rain…since then…now over a month…less than 1/4″.
Hopefully this starts to change because as I wrote about a bunch yesterday…it is dry out there and the trees and grass are feeling the effects.
There are a couple of fronts coming into the region over the next 24-36 hours. A secondary front will help to trigger some storms perhaps in the later afternoon on Saturday and those could produce some brief locally heavy rains for those who are lucky to get them. So a couple of chances of rain.
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One sentence forecast: Another pretty good day with highs in the lower 80s with more PM clouds
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Forecast:
Today: Mostly sunny this morning and increasing clouds this afternoon with highs in the lower 80s.
Tonight: Some showers are possible later this evening (earlier in northern MO) with lows in the lower 60s
Tomorrow: Any morning shower chances will leave quickly…then another chance of storms pop up in the afternoon after 3-4 PM. Highs in the 80° range
Sunday: Nicer with highs in the upper 70s
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Discussion:
Less than 1/4″ of rain in the last month+ isn’t great and it’s possible that we can get about that much tonight and tomorrow afternoon. Some areas may get a bit more but overall the coverage of the better rains will be less in the big picture.
The cold front in question…the 1st of two really, will affect us tomorrow morning. It’s a subtle wind shift that really won’t impact the temperatures much I don’t believe.
That should trigger showers/storms up across NW MO later today or this evening. Heads up for Friday Night Lights activities up there.
Then some of that activity may sag south or new activity may develop with the front itself during the wee hours of the morning. It should last for too long though and the amounts should be under 1/4″ or so for some.
Then tomorrow we’ll be awaiting a secondary push. This will be accompanied by a disturbance that will be coming through the Upper Midwest. This will actually help to provide some lift to the air tomorrow and also help to push some cooler air down through the Upper Midwest southwards.
Before that happens though we should warm up a bit tomorrow again…and with the lift in the atmosphere kicking in later in the afternoon we may see a thinnish line of showers/storms move down from the north after 4PM or so.
So the window of rain chances tomorrow is near daybreak for a couple of hours then perhaps more towards after 4PM through 8PM or so for some isolated activity to move through. Right now I’m not overly excited about the coverage from round two but perhaps this can do a bit better than I’m thinking. Regardless it will be a quick hitter so the rain amounts may not be great for many from this.
I guess it’s not out of the question that there could be a stronger storm or two in there, especially south of the Metro later tomorrow or tomorrow evening.
Sunday should be fine and we should warm up a bit into early next week with low to mid 80s likely as we head towards the last days of summer.
Fall officially starts at 1:50 AM NEXT Saturday…the 23rd (a later start to fall that what is typical).
Hurricane Lee is losing it’s tropical characteristics. The warmth the storm uses to help to generate convection is fading as the storm comes northwards into cooler waters and cooler air.
It continues to have a large wind field…100s of miles across. Those stronger winds are generating some big time waves out in the western Atlantic affecting the eastern Seaboard.
This combination of wind and wave energy will lead to lots of coastal erosion for those vulnerable areas.
So that will be a big story this weekend in the New England area.
That’s it for today…our feature photo comes from @fatfoxcoon on twitter
Joe
