Joe’s Weather Blog: Colder/Warmer/Colder (MON-3/23)

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Good afternoon…as expected cooler temperatures (really just a return back to seasonable) are prevailing in the region as readings at the noon hour are near 50° in the area. This cooler air mass will win the fight tomorrow it appears before retreating northwards on WED before the chilly weather returns in earnest later in the week.

Forecast:

Tonight: Showers and some thunderstorms are possible…odds continue to favor N MO and NE KS as having the opportunity for seeing some heavier storms with the potential of at least some hail tomorrow AM. In the KC area we may not get a lot of rain out of this but at least some rain is possible. The storms in N MO may be near-severe with some hail (1″ sized or less) possible. Temperatures will be in the 30s up there…so it may be a weird morning tomorrow.

Tomorrow: It appears most of the “storms” will have moved away during the AM hours…however as the discussion part will talk about…we may be stuck in a low gray overcast with a warm front towards the south of the region keeping us in the cold air. Some light rain/drizzle is possible during the day. In the warmer air, well SE of the KC metro…storms are possible later in the day.

Wednesday: The cold air should try and lift north (we’ll see how far north it gets), putting us into the warmer air again. Temperatures will be all over the place. Storms are possible later in the day nearby, with severe weather possible towards the Lakes region and the I-44 corridor.

Discussion:

I mentioned yesterday that Tuesday had a “high” bust potential in terms of temperatures and the data today, like in some cases yesterday, supports a colder solution to tomorrow (an overall miserable day weatherwise here).

I’ve written so much over the past few days about the events to unfold…so look at the previous blogs for the set-up discussion etc.

As mentioned in the forecast…tonight there may be some storms, mostly NW and N of KC. Temperatures up there will be in the 30s tomorrow AM…and with convection and those chilly surface temperatures some “weird” hail/ice chunk combination is possible…

The storms (even though it’s cold at the surface) are possible because of a front to the south on the surface, then with strong winds above the surface blowing over the front…there is lift in the atmosphere. You can see the “low-level” jet developing towards the south of the region via the RAP model.

Those are 50-60 MPH winds developing down there that will translate north. Storms may initially form in this scenario towards the west of the KC area…and then move NEwards overnight into tomorrow AM. Here is the forecast radar off the hi-res NAM for 2AM Tuesday.

hires_ref_kc_20

So you can see we’re sort of on the edge of this activity in the KC area…

The cold air will help to firm up a warm front that will be south of here (the rain-cooled air will help too) and this front may not move much northwards tomorrow…or perhaps nudge into the south side of KC up towards the I-70 corridor. As a result temperatures tomorrow will be widely varied from north to south. From near 40° to well into the 60s. Here is the hi-res NAM for tomorrow afternoon in terms of a temperature forecast. Click on that image to make it more readable…

hires_t2m_kc_34

 

When you get these fronts bisecting the area…it makes things extremely tough to forecast because any 50 mile north of south wiggle of that front would be a 10-15° change in the temperatures for the day. So let’s go with 45-50° up towards KCI to near 50° Downtown…to 55-60 near the Harrisonville-Paola area to 60-65° towards Sedalia and Butler. Needless to say a “fluid” forecast for sure! Some storms are possible later in the day as well…potentially severe towards the SE of KC proper. Here is the forecast radar for 5PM tomorrow.

hires_ref_kc_35

Then on Wednesday another weak wave in the atmosphere will be passing through the Plains. Behind this wave some rather chilly air will be barreling southwards. Ahead of this forming cold front, south winds should allow the warm air to come northwards…

hires_t2m_kc_58

 

There is the potential for additional storms later WED with the passage of the cold front that changes the late week weather towards the cold side.

hires_ref_kc_61

Again be alert for colder days THU-SAT AM with freeze/hard freeze potential into SAT AM. Clouds may be around FRI AM keeping temperatures from bottoming out…

Joe

 

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