Joe’s Weather Blog: Cool to chilly weather for at least a week (WED-4/14)

Weather Blog

Averages during this time of the year are in the mid 60s and increasing. It’s going to remain below average for highs for awhile. There is one day next week (Monday) that we may be milder, that will be ahead of a stronger push of chilly air that will be moving in Monday night into Tuesday. That may give us the chance of seeing freezing temperatures for a day or two next week (in the morning).

Overall though this is a cool pattern for sure. At least today and tomorrow are going to be pleasant (cool… but pleasant).

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Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny and pleasant with highs near 60°.

Tonight: Fair and chilly with lows in the lower to mid 30s. Some frost is possible even here in the Kansas City area.

Tomorrow: Increasing high clouds with highs near 60°.

Friday: Rain developing with highs in the 40s.

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Discussion:

Well it’s not exactly going to be bathing suit weather for a while. Although I’m sure we can manage to appreciate it because the summer heat and humidity is not too far away I guess.

Periodic cool shots of air combined with upper-level systems will conspire to bring lots of clouds to the region with additional rain chances as well.

The next 36 hours should be fine. This morning we briefly dipped for a few minutes to 36°. Tomorrow morning we may briefly dip to near 33°. There wasn’t a lot of frost to my knowledge in the area this morning. There should be more tomorrow morning.

Lots of higher-level moisture will initially stream into the area tomorrow. That will filter out the sunshine, then the clouds will lower and thicken tomorrow night. Maybe a few light showers are possible, but the main rain chances come into the area on Friday.

We won’t be as chilly Friday morning, lower 40s, but the trick about Friday is as the rain moves in, beforehand there may be a window to go up a few degrees. Depending on the progress of the rain, we could get to 50° or we may get stuck with faster progress in the mid-to-upper 40s. I think the latter though is the better forecast.

Another issue is when the rain gets here… how much do we get. I’ve been thinking that this wouldn’t be such a “big” storm in terms of amounts, and it may not be in the end, but there has been a noticeable increase in the amounts of rainfall that the models are cranking out overnight.

With the exception of the EURO model which shows roughly 1/4″-1/2″ or so of rain, other models are much more bullish. One way of looking at this is by looking at the various runs of the model in question, the members of the ensemble if you will. These are runs of a model with different physics and different initial conditions. The idea is that you can generate a better forecast looking at the range of possibilities as opposed to just looking at one particular model.

So here are the EURO and the GFS ensembles in all their glory… almost 75 models runs on two graphics:

EURO members
GS members

Notice the averages on the bottom of the two images… about 1/4″ on the EURO and 1/2″ on the GFS members.

The individual runs, especially of the GFS and the NAM are more more bullish.

Here is the GFS:

And the overnight NAM model:

The NAM especially has about three times the amount of rain as all the other models, and it just looks too wet to me.

For now I’ll stick with my thoughts of 1/4 to 1/2″ or so of rain, with some upside to about 3/4″ or so through Saturday morning.

All this is coming about because of an upper-level system that will be moving into the Plains.

As we go up to about 18,000 feet or the 500 mb level, you can see this coming out of the Rockies and through the region.

Also notice right at the end, which by then is Saturday evening, that there is another little “thing” dropping into Nebraska around the backside of the main upper-level system.

That is an issue for Sunday.

I’m not too thrilled by the look of the weekend forecast. While Friday looks raw and wet, there may be some additional areas of drizzle or true showers over the weekend. Not all day, but enough that it’s a nuisance at times.

Obviously between the clouds and the rain in the region, especially a lot of clouds, it’s going to remain cooler than average, perhaps only in the 50-55° range for the weekend.

There is one day, Monday, that looks promising. Stronger warmer and southwest winds ahead of a stronger push of colder air will hopefully bring us to near 70°. The stronger push of colder air though will enter the area Monday night into Tuesday. That means a return to chilly conditions and the potential, next Wednesday morning of a lighter freeze, and perhaps in some areas a harder freeze, depending on the cloud-cover situation.

This chillier air may tangle with some record lows in the Plains. Look at the 5-10 day temperature forecasts off the model data from the EURO and the GFS. Use the slider bar to compare the differences.

You can clearly see how we are setting up for this as a strong upper-level system will be over Hudson Bay in Canada.

The flow of air will be coming right out of the Arctic, and that is chilly air even by later April standards.

I’m already starting to look at record lows in the 21st to 25th timeframe:

The above chart is a bit different. I’ve highlighted the individual record lows/dates. Note on the 23rd and 25th the records are 32 and 33°. On the 21st, 22nd, and 24th the records are 29°, 25° and 27°.

We may get close. That 29° on the 21st is sort of interesting to me.

So the bottom line is cool to chilly weather, with an island of warmth (Monday).

The feature photo comes from Peggy Jane Farmer. She writes:

“It’s bluebell time!!!! These elusive plants pop up each spring, covering only certain wooded areas. They seem to prefer areas that occasionally flood. They pop up, bloom for a magical period of about 2 weeks, and then vanish with no trace of flower or plant. The area often covered with things like nettle! Incredibly beautiful they start out with pink buds that will normally turn into blue bell shaped flowers, with an occasional white batch, covering entire sections of the woods. Because they are so elusive, in spite of me playing in the woods every chance I got, I never even knew of their existence until I was nearly out of school (and we have several patches around us – one that Paul Harvey broadcast about!) We are SO blessed.”

Joe

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