Joe’s Weather Blog: Fighting clouds today…watching our next rain chance (THU-11/4)

Weather Blog

We’ve started off November with some chilly days and granted the “sample size” is only 3 days old but we’re close to 9° below average so far…and today won’t help the cause all that much. Clouds are going to be tough to thin out…but there should be at least a bit of sunshine this afternoon. The clouds and a cool air mass will conspire again to keep temperatures about 10° below average for highs.

The hope is tomorrow we get more sunshine…and then we’re set up for a big weekend jump through the 60s and perhaps even into the 70s on Sunday and Monday!

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Forecast:

Today: Mostly cloudy and cool with highs near 50°

Tonight: Clouds around again with lows in the 30s

Tomorrow: Partly cloudy and not as cool with highs in the mid-upper 50s

Saturday: Mostly sunny, breezy and mild with highs in the 60s

Sunday: Windy and bright with highs in the 70° range

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Discussion:

The morning satellite picture isn’t a good one for a bright day today.

Model data and the balloon launch today show that the clouds are only a few thousand feet thick…so we need either 1) the sun to break up some of the clouds or 2) the winds above the cloud layer to erode the clouds. The issue with 1) is that we’re coming into a low sun angle time of the year for the next few months so we’re losing the “power” of the sun…and the issue with 2) is that the winds above the clouds are only around 5-10 MPH…and that’s not helpful either.

The clouds are about 5,000 feet up…and the winds at that level are from the south and southwest at around 5-10 MPH as well…so what is to the south has to meander up through the area to some extent…and you can see all the moisture to the south.

In other words…it may take awhile to see the sunshine today…awhile!

We may be fighting the clouds through the night as well.

Hopefully tomorrow it’s not as much of an issue…although I won’t be surprised if clouds are an issue tomorrow for awhile at least.

It will not be until the weekend when the winds start mixing up the low level air and breaks the clouds up and we finally get into a warmer air mass.

This warmer air mass will linger for a few days. While Sunday and Monday should be the warmest days…even after that and a front passing through the area on Tuesday…it won’t be overly cold into Wednesday. After that though there should be a stronger front moving through with a stronger push of chillier weather at the end of next week.

That next change will be somewhat connected to this swirl up in Alaska.

Pieces of that elongated system will be breaking off and moving into the Pacific NW region. In time early next week a stronger piece will break off and potentially turn in to a rather significant upper level storm as it moves into the upper Midwest and the eastern Plains. How this all evolves though is a bit question…1) with regards to the placement and 2) the timing of how this plays out. The GFS seems quicker while the EURO is slower.

This is sort of important because it would affect the arrival of some of the chillier air that we’re expecting to move into the area. Take a look at a couple of the models…the GFS vs the EURO. These are both the forecasts for 7AM next Thursday. Slide right for the GFS and left for the EURO

So that is a significant change between models.

I also noticed that the GFS ensembles (a combination/average of about 20 other model runs) seems a bit slower with the arrival of this chillier air mass on Thursday…

The EURO has a minor cool down on Thursday followed by a stronger push of chillier air on Friday and Saturday. Take a look at the 5,000 foot temperature anomalies for next Saturday off the EURO.

Brrrrrrrrrrrr

So some sort of significant cool down will occur later next week…I favor more of the later times but it won’t be that long lasting for us.

OK that’s about it for today…not sure about a blog tomorrow because right now I can’t think of a topic off the top of my head that isn’t repetitive.

Ben and his drone has the feature photo today! As the sun was coming up illuminating the bottom of the stratocumulus clouds.

Joe

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