Joe’s Weather Blog: How about a run towards 70°! (TUE-11/2)

Weather Blog

This is the time of year that you can get some pretty big swings the the temperatures. As the jet stream strengthens around the northern hemisphere…as cold air gets deeper and colder in the northern latitudes you get bigger storms…and bigger storms do bigger things. They suck up more warmth from the southern part of the country and drag down the colder and colder air from Canada and farther north.

All this can lead to bigger swings in the temperatures. We’re starting this morning in the 30-35° range thanks to some pre-daybreak clearing. It snowed yesterday in some areas, especially along and north of the I-70 corridor. Yet the data today and really for the past few days suggests a nice combination of wind and warmth to build through the Plains heading into the weekend and early next week.

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Forecast:

Today: Variable clouds and chilly with highs in the mid 40s

Tonight: Fair skies and chilly with lows near freezing

Tomorrow: Partly cloudy and cool with highs in the upper 40s

Thursday: Not too bad but still cool with highs in the 50-55° range

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Discussion:

Off the top…it’s a dry pattern setting up into the middle of next week it appears…so we’ll be drying out I think for awhile in this part of the country.

Your eyes weren’t deceiving you yesterday…or at least some of you. It was snowing…and it snowed pretty good along I-70 (give or take) from KCK eastwards into Independence. There were other areas that saw flakes as well. The snow at the station was pretty heavy for about 45 minutes or so as we showed you on the tower cam movie from yesterday.

There was sticking snow though in areas west of the region towards Nebraska.

Early November…that’s about right.

This morning you’re seeing the temperature contrast well. Notice towards the gulf region…70s lurking off shore. Now look into the northern Plains…teens up there as of 8AM or so.

Storms that develop will be tapping into that temperature contrast…now it’s a matter of getting actual storms to develop and really nothing crazy is going to affect us for awhile.

In the bigger scheme of things…I’ve outlined the 0° air wayyyyy up towards the Pole and the 60° or higher air in the map below.

Now let’s jump ahead into Sunday…look at how things change as the warmth in the middle of the country surges northwards.

That’s why I’m pretty confident of some significant warmth to move back into the middle of the country. I don’t think we’re looking at record highs BUT the atmosphere above is awfully warm next Monday and Tuesday especially.

We’ll have more wind…and lots of sunshine. I actually looked at the record highs for next Monday and Tuesday (82° (2005) / 78° (1999) ) and at least the air aloft is sort of suggestive that we could be underestimating the potential warmth. I looked back at the atmosphere for 2005 on that record breaking day and there are lots of similarities in the temperature department.

The 78° record high is also doable for the 9th BUT there may be an issue with high clouds filtering the sunshine on that day. Certainly another mild day overall though it appears. So my thought is that you’ll see forecasts keep trending up and up with the highs for early next week as the models catch up…but it’s my job to tell you when the models may have failures and aren’t taking into account certain things.

There are obviously ways this may NOT work. One would be some sort of weird cold front that isn’t being realized yet that changes the wind direction. Another again would be clouds. Keep in mind that the sun angle next week is essentially the same as the sun angle in early February so 70s are a tough thing to get too…but it certainly can happen and that’s why I’m leading the pack in that forecast compared to others I’m guessing. Let’s see if others catch up down the road.

As always I can fall on my face on this one. lol.

So next on the agenda are some interesting tidbits…including all the hurricanes of 2021. We have Tropical Storm Wanda out in the Atlantic

Tropical systems for 2021

How about all the tornado warnings issued so far too!

I’m not sure why I found this interesting but it’s a basic relief map of MO

and Kansas…

Then there was this…

For you weather nerds a deeper dive into the tornadoes in northern MO a couple of weeks ago from Jon Daviess…he does nice severe weather write-ups.

This is interesting…and perhaps can have Lake Effect snow ramifications down the road…

Deanna Blair has the feature photo today.

Joe

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