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KANSAS CITY, Mo. — This morning I’m thinking back to the winter snow predictions that the team made back in early December, ranging from about 13 to 22 inches or so across the team. I was the lowest and Garry was the highest. The team was probably surprised that I was so low in my forecast. My reasoning at the time was that December would end up a dud, (it was, nothing for snow) and we’d then be behind the ball for the rest of the winter.

That 13-inch total is still a gutsy call. We’ve had 2.1 inches up at KCI, and to be honest a lot of that was sleet. But whatever, we’re going with 2.1 inches so far. We missed adding to things last week, and this week is out (at least into Friday). So we’ll likely sit at 2.1 inches for a while it appears. By now, the average is a little more than 6 inches since 2000 or so.

So where are we going over the coming weeks for snow?

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Forecast:

Today: Sunny and pleasant for mid-January. Highs near 40 degrees.

Tonight: Mostly clear and chilly with lows in the teens.

Tomorrow: Milder and windy with highs in the mid-to-upper 50s. Gusts may approach 35 mph.

Wednesday: Nice with less wind with highs again in the 50s.

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Discussion:

Not a lot to discuss for the next five days regarding the weather as our January “thaw” kicks in this week. It’s sort of ironic really. This is typically the coldest week on average around these parts too. From the 11th through the 17th, the average temperature is 38 degrees. These next 5-7 days look to be above average each day. The only day that might be average is Saturday.

So let’s move on to the snow aspect of things.

For the Interstate 70 corridor and southwards, nothing too exciting through the first six weeks of meteorological winter.

Via IA State

Actually, when looking northwards through the I-80 corridor, places like Des Moines, Iowa and Omaha, Nebraska toward Lincoln, Nebraska and even Chicago, nothing too great either. Even into South Dakota, not so much. Central South Dakota has had less than 2 inches of snow.

St. Louis isn’t too exciting: 1/10 inch.

So that’s where we are through today’s date.

Here is a bit more data for you:

Snow since late September

The mountains out west have had nice snows west of Denver and especially into the Pacific Northwest. That will be helpful come melting time as long as it melts slowly and not rapidly. Overall though, things aren’t too snowy south of the yellow contour and that includes us and lot of other places as well.

Nationwide about 37% of the country has some snow on the ground this morning.

That is slightly less than last year and a bit more than a few previous years. We’ll wipe that number down a bit too over the coming days.

So about this week: It’s a mild week for sure. Here is the EURO idea for averages:

For the next 5 days

Now days 5-10:

There should be a push towards somewhat chillier air that comes in and out after that…but whatever comes in doesn’t last too long

Then days 10-15:

Not terrible, but perhaps a bit chillier in that time frame.

Models are grabbing hold of some arctic air towards the last week of the month as the Alaska Ridge and central through eastern US trough returns. That could be some very cold air for the last week of the month.

About the snow thing though…

Take a look at the extended EURO forecasts and the GFS ensembles idea:

EURO
GFS Ensembles

If you’re a landscaper/snow remover, there may be a few chances but there aren’t any “big” storms showing up. In other words, whatever snows we get appear to be chemical-treated than plowable snows based on the data today.

If there is a bigger arctic push of air towards the last week of the month, the chances would increase somewhat that as that comes into the area, maybe there could be something more noteworthy for snows around here, but that would be towards the last week of the month.

Sorry snow lovers…

The feature photo comes from Mary Jo Seever out in Atchison, Kansas.

Joe