The weekend played out as I expected it to… there were indeed some light showers moving through in the afternoon on Sunday as a dying disturbance worked along the I-70 corridor. The evening turned out fine and yesterday was a great day in the region.

Monday should follow suit as well with plenty of sunshine.

The issue for the week are the rain chances. No severe weather is expected this week (at this point). The rain chances will be in and out, mostly out, but there are a couple out there this week. The repetitive chances should break starting Friday and we may briefly heat up later in the weekend for a couple of days or so.

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Forecast

Today: Mostly sunny this morning then partly cloudy this afternoon. Seasonable with highs in the lower 80s

Tonight: Another risk of showers with some storms should develop later tonight as a disturbance or two comes toward the region from the central Plains. Rain chance is 60% because these things have a mind of their own.

Tomorrow: Any brief early morning showers end, then overall pretty good with highs well into the 70s. Another late night chance of storms/rain

Wednesday: More or less like Tuesday: Any early morning activity moves away and skies will be partly cloudy with highs well into the 70s

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Discussion

My wife commented to me yesterday how well the grass looks. She NEVER makes that comment. I have to admit it does look good. Timely and sufficient rains and not too warm/hot days is bluegrass perfection. We’ve seem to have had that in spades recently.

I’m not expected too much to change this week. Overall a near average week for temperatures with OK mornings and mild afternoons. More grass growing weather I guess.

We’re also coming to the last stages of severe weather season locally. Now that doesn’t mean we don’t get severe weather through the summer, very possible to likely at some point, and recently it seems we’ve actually had more tornadoes in June and July than in April and May around this region.

There have been some tornadoes after the 15th through the end of July…as the next 2 maps show.

Via Tornado Archive

Mostly for the Metro they are the weaker versions.

In this weird severe weather season locally…I won’t be shocked if even after the 15th there is some action.

While this data goes through the 2nd of June…

So far KS has had 37 reports of tornadoes…Missouri 10. Both of those are well below average.

Nebraska has had 18, while Iowa has had 47. We’ll add a few more to NE/KS from the past weekend but still below average through early June.

So far we’ve had 800 reports of tornadoes through the 2nd. Again, add on about more to that through this morning. That is actually right around average.

The 30 year averages…through 2014 show KS getting about 100 tornadoes and MO about 40.

So yeah, well below average so far, and remember most of the tornadoes for the 2 states come through mid-June typically.

The pattern that we’re in now, at least for us, isn’t one that usually produces tornadoes. For one we’re more getting what happens from disturbances that are generated from thunderstorms out west and northwest of KC.

As those systems work through the Plains and undergo various changes and alterations, we get what’s left over and that is typically in the form of rain and thunderstorms.

Sometimes you can get heavier rains from these systems, like what happened in parts of the area last week, other times you just get some soaking rain, like what happened last night for parts of the area and may happen again tonight and tomorrow night into early Wednesday.

One thing typically though is that the models will struggle with timing and placement of said areas of rain. As I mentioned these disturbances generated from clusters of strong to severe storms in the western Plains have a mind of their own in terms of movement.

We have a general idea of the general direction that they will go, but the specifics and the weakening or strengthening of the Mesoscale Convective Systems or MCS’s are typically to be worked out as they occur and start organizing.

But IF I show you a forecast radar snapshot at 2AM tomorrow morning… off the morning run of the HRRR model

and another one for tomorrow evening at 10PM…

You can see we’re in the zone of incoming rains. Does that mean you get both instances… not necessarily. The chances though will certainly be there into early Wednesday.

Another chance comes early Friday, too, and that might do it for awhile.

Like I said, more grass growing weather.

Morgan Quick with the feature photo of the day from Saturday. Love the composition.

Joe