KANSAS CITY, Mo. — It’s a pretty morning out there with only a couple of isolated showers as I type this up this morning. The rain will become more widespread in the region heading into the weekend but the area will see varied conditions. There will be enough dry time over the weekend, in between chances of rain to do a few things outside, but you’ll need to pay attention to the weather through the weekend as it will be changing for sure.
Overall though temperatures after a hot afternoon today will remain below average through the early part of next week it appears. Not bad as we come into the middle part of July.
Today: Perhaps a few isolated showers but variable clouds this morning then more sunshine in the afternoon. Hotter and more humid with increasing winds. Highs in the lower 90s.
Tonight: A chance of early AM storms moving through. The severe weather risk is still questionable with these storms but strong winds would be the issue, if any overnight. Lows in the 70s. Breezy as well.
Tomorrow: Lots of clouds with occasional rain/storms. There will be lulls for several hours at a time it looks like. Not as hot with highs in the 80° range. Stronger storm risks may develop in the afternoon from Kansas City southwards, but that will be determined by what happens earlier in the day, if anything.
Sunday: Variable clouds, with scattered showers/storms. Highs only in the mid-to-upper 70s.
It’s a complicated weekend forecast that is made more complicated by the set-ups from day to day. An unusual (for July) upper-level system is going to be meandering around the Missouri River Valley area for a couple of days. Unusual systems in the heat of the mid-summer typically create unusual weather around the area, and that has my attention.
While the rain chances are 100% over the weekend, there will be numerous daytime hours of dry weather it appears. It will just require you to pay attention and be on the lookout for advancing showers/storms moving through the region.
Complicating things are different setups for different parts of the region. North and northeast Missouri will be vulnerable to what’s coming out of Iowa. Northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas through the Kansas City area will be vulnerable to what’s coming out of Nebraska, and areas south of KC will be vulnerable to what develops in the Metro region. All areas are on the watch for severe storms but again no one area, except perhaps northeast Missouri has the highest risk right now. We just have to see how things play out from day to day over the weekend, especially Saturday.
I think the Sunday forecast is somewhat easier as the upper-level low will be rotating around the region. This represents a cold pocket of air above us. As we get some daytime heating, that should create enough lift to get showers/storms to rotate around the main upper-level storm. Again, there will be activity but perhaps the widespread nature of that activity will be confined for most of the day.
I want to show you the morning run of the HRRR model. This is as good a sampling I can show you for how things could play out. Notice some get rain at times while others go hours with nothing. That will likely be us over the weekend.
So storms will be around the area.
The next issue is how much rain, because as detailed in the blog these last couple of days, there may be some heavier totals in excess of 3 inches for some. So the risk of flooding is elevated.
The main risk for tonight and tomorrow early is towards northeast Missouri.
This is also where the highest risk of severe storms is later today and especially overnight.
We’ll be paying attention to areas on the east side of the viewing region later today and tonight just in case.
Then tomorrow the heavier rain setup persists in northeast Missouri but somewhat expands a bit farther westwards…
…while the main severe weather risk expands from Kansas City southwards.
So in the end we sort of end up in a 1-3 inch rain potential.
… with 5-plus inches possible towards southeast Iowa, Northeast Missouri, and central and southern Illinois.
That’s a lot of rain.
As far as severe weather goes, depending on the setup tomorrow, the Kansas City area may be in play later in the day. With various leftover boundaries in the region and new storms popping, something could happen. Winds and hail would be the main threats locally with perhaps something stronger connected to an advancing cold front moving through and affecting areas south and southeast of Kansas City in the mid-to-late afternoon.
Then on Sunday an upper-level low will be rotating around the region. This means whatever develops will be rotating around in a cyclonic or counter clockwise fashion. So that means cells may be moving from east to west and northeast to southwest, the opposite way of a clock’s motion for example.
With that upper-level storm meandering around Missouri on Monday, the higher risks of rain may be more towards central Missouri and eastwards, but that will be watched over the weekend.
So a lot happening, and as we say the devil is in the details really. A lot will be determined by the morning chances tomorrow and how that rearranges the atmosphere locally. Some areas could get over 5 inches of rain from all this, perhaps more favored towards north central and northeastern Missouri.
The feature photo today comes from Sandra Cox out towards Leeton, Missouri.