Clouds continue to stream into the region connected with a flow of moisture that originates in Mexico and flows up into the SW US and then around into the Plains. Within that flow small little waves are creating periodic rain chances.

The trick though is how long those waves survive as they cross KS in no real hurry to get to KC.

The problem is many times the waves sort of peter out as they come towards the State Line… so the rains we get and much less dramatic that what radar will show out west hours before the rain arrives. That may happen again this afternoon as another wave edges closer.

The intense heat has been pushed toward Oklahoma and Arkansas, where highs on Wednesday were around 100. Nashville hit 101°, which was their 1st 100°+ day since 2012(!). Almost 10 years.

Here in KC we haven’t had a 100°+ day since July 12th, 2018. No 100s are coming soon though.

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Forecast

Today: Mostly cloudy with some showers or fading storms possible later this morning or this afternoon. It may not be a lot of rain though and I can’t promise a lot of coverage. Highs in the lower to mid-80s

Tonight: Another chance of storms develops before daybreak. Perhaps a bit more organized. Lows in the upper 60s

Tomorrow: Storms fade in the morning with clouds lingering for awhile. Highs near 90° and muggier too.

Saturday: A front should come through later in the day. Highs in the 90-95° range

Sunday: Cooler and lower humidity. IF things work out maybe only in the 70s. There may be rain overnight Saturday into early Sunday morning.

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Discussion

Let’ start with the satellite picture. You can see the moisture running through the Plains.

There is another disturbance out there toward the west of the Metro Thursday morning.

You can see all the rain this morning well towards the west of the region.

Here is local radar from Topeka…

There is a lot of rain out there, but the question is how long does it survive as the atmosphere starts to become less favorable for rain to hold together as it comes eastwards east of Topeka.

Something should make it toward the State Line area though I think, hence the reason why I was hitting the rain a bit harder last night. Certainly not set in stone though, even this morning.

This is one of many disturbances that has potential but yet may not produce a lot locally.

The flow pattern overall though has done wonders for the intensely dry weather in parts of the southwest.

Remember all the fires that were burning in New Mexico? A lot of those have been tamped down because of excessive rains there and over the next five days. New Mexico is in the sweet spot (most of it is) for additional rains.

The drought though there persists but this will help.

On the Kansas side, the drought is still a bit issue out towards the western part of the state…

Central and eastern KS though are in pretty good shape. There are some signs that SW KS may get some decent moisture as well over the next few days.

Here is the HRRR model showing the progression of the rain towards the west of the area this morning…

For timing…17Z is 12PM…20Z is 3PM

Something from the mass of rain out west should get here, but it doesn’t look too impressive right now.

Then later tonight into tomorrow morning we’ll try again. This time the hotter air to the south will be fighting farther northward.

As we try to make this transition, storms/showers should develop. Again, I can’t promise a lot of Metro coverage at this point. Odds perhaps favor areas N/NE of the Metro, but at least the chance is there toward daybreak Friday.

We go back into the hotter and more humid air Friday and Saturday before a nice cold front comes into the picture on Saturday. This front appears to move into the area during the afternoon sometime between 12PM and 6PM.

IF it holds off until later, we get hotter. IF it comes in on the earlier side of that frame, temperatures may level off north of I-70.

As far as convection goes, something is on the table at least in the afternoon or early evening, especially south of I-70. The issue though may be a cap that could put a bit of a lid on things.

Dew points will be in the 70s (very muggy) ahead and even initially behind the front into Saturday night, and I do have a hard time in my “weather head” about how we can transition to temperatures 15-20° cooler and dew points 20-25° lower on Sunday without anything happening.

The models aren’t too aggressive with the storm risks, but it’s something that still may happen.

Our feature photo comes from Matthew Reinschmidt of a hazy sunset from last week.

Joe