Joe’s Weather Blog: Oh sunshine my sunshine (TUE-5/17)

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Good afternoon. A pretty miserable last 36 hours in KC from a weather perspective as rain and clouds have dampened our moods just a little bit. The good news is that things are improving west and north of KC and it appears that we will enjoy some nicer May weather for a few days…and really aside from a bit of a speed bump later Thursday into FRI AM…we should be in good shape through Sunday overall.

Forecast:

Tonight: Clearing skies and cool for mid May with lows in the 45-50° range. The weather will be dry for the Royals game tonight.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy and milder. Still though a bit below average for this time of the year. Highs 65-70°. Average is 75° for highs for 5/18

Thursday: Increasing clouds with highs around 70°. Some shower activity is possible Thursday evening into early Friday.

Discussion:

Well the school year is starting to wrap up this week and next for most of the students in the region. A shoult out to start the blog today tot he K-5th graders up in Kearney, MO at Hawthorne Elementary. Thank you for the shirt and card!

So as the kids get ready to hit the pool…my guess is that the pools that are opening over the weekend and next week will be rather chilly for awhile if they’re not heated…and most here aren’t. Temperatures have been cool, needless to say, and the rain hasn’t helped with all the clouds in the region. You may remember from previous blogs that we haven’t had a below average month of temperatures since last July. This May may try and do it. We’re running about 1.5-2° below average through today and temperatures will be below average for a couple of more days. We will though start seeing more typical May weather and warmer overnights next week especially it appears.

The forecast for rain timing and amounts has pretty much worked out to a tee from what I’ve written about for the last several days…the rain as expected was an issue this morning in KC but is now starting to move away from the metro…and by looking at the satellite images…there is clearing happening to the N and W of the KC area as I type this…or at least more sun/clouds.

The air at the surface and aloft though is still chilly for May. This means as soon as the sun comes out…and warms the air…the air starts rising again and the moisture condenses and boom you get clouds re-forming. So don’t expect a lot of sunshine to finish off today.

This cool pocket of air + residual moisture may be around Wednesday as well. So it may not be perfectly sunny. Expect a mixture of clouds and sunshine in the region. Overall though a nice day to be out and about in KC

As you know we’ve been talking about this set-up for awhile with little waves ejecting out of a “momma” upper level storm.

Well “momma” storm is still out across the SW part of the country as you can see by looking at the water vapor images.

Actually there are a couple systems spinning around. One near Salt Lake and the Other near Las Vegas. IF you look hard you may find a few other “spins” as well. This whole piece will migrate into the Plains on THU and weaken as it does so. It will again sling some moisture our way. As whatever is left of that moves through later THU into early Friday…the potential for additional showers will increase. This doesn’t look to be a heavy event nor will there be severe weather in this scenario locally.

These last 36 hours of rain have brought about 3/4″-1 1/2″ of rain to the vast majority of the area. Perhaps less so across N MO. Sedalia which was almost 8″ below average through Sunday received about 1.5″ of much needed moisture that really soaked into the ground nicely…so good news for areas SE of KC. Doppler estimates, while not a perfect graphic…gives a rough idea of the rain distribution.

Capture
Doppler estimated totals through 2PM Tuesday

The rain amounts later Thursday into FRI AM look to be under 1/4″ for most of the viewing area. So really not that big of a deal overall.

Hey it could be worse…remember LAST May. We had only 4 “rain-free” days at KCI. Every other day there was a “trace” or more of rain. That month we ended up with 5″ of rain. Others had quite a bit more than that. There was terrible flooding up towards Mosby/Excelsior Springs and other places. So really in the big scheme of things this May is so much better. We also finished last May 1° below average…let’s see what happens over the next 2 weeks here in KC.

Finally there was an interesting article on the circulations within a tornado that came out today from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Here is the eye-candy part of the article.

sat

 

I may take a day off from the blog on Wednesday with the quieter weather heading this way.

Joe

 

 

 

 

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