The pattern overall is cold…and dry…and I don’t know how to write something differently than that what I just wrote…and have written for the last 5-10 days about what’s going to be happening. By now you know what’s coming…you know the extent of it…and you know what has gone into the maintenance of the cold. So this blog is a recap of all that. For a more historical connection see the previous blogs that show the context of the “coldness’ of the past and where this one may slide into.
If you’re getting the drift that I don’t know what else to say this morning about cold weather…good! Whatever precip can get cranked out will be light and not significant. So I thought this morning we’d drill into the precipitation aspect of the year as we slowly wrap up 2017.
Today: Cloudy skies and cold. Highs should be around 30°. There may be some freezing mist out there this afternoon but with temperatures near 30° it will be inconsequential I think in the KC area. Assuming we don’t hit 32° today…we may not till the end of NEXT week.
Tonight: The colder air starts to seep in. It won’t be a rush of cold air at once…it will be a slow downward glide in the temperatures as the winds switch towards the north. We’ll have a 12AM high for Saturday of 25+° but since the very initial push of cold air will be towards central KS…it will be a gradual pullback overnight. Some flakes aren’t out of the question
Saturday: Getting cold with readings around 10° during the afternoon and pretty much holding steady from there.
Sunday: Here we go…lows near 0° with highs in the single digits. There should be some sunshine.
Monday: Lows 5-10 below with highs in the single digits with some sunshine.
Of note also as well…for Northern MO is that lows will be sub-zero on Sunday as well with wind chills 15-25 below and on Monday morning lows may tank to 20 below with wind chills of 30 below…so there’s that. Some additional flakes of snow possible up there too.
Oh and did I mention another arctic air mass comes in on Wednesday and then perhaps later in the week too…with all this cold air (we’re wasting it snow lovers) there is little measurable precip coming aside from perhaps some flakes here and there…perhaps some coatings but nothing with any substance.
I didn’t even bother to stay up real late last night to see the entire EURO run come in…because I could tell where it was going with regards to precipitation.
Just miserable for those of us who want something…anything. The maps above are for the next 10 days..showing the EURO and the GFS model. That’s not a good look for an area of the country that’s been very dry for the last 2+ months now.
So let’s look at where we’ve been so far in 2017 from a precipitation standpoint…
One look at the map above and you think…wow! Look at all the blueish colors showing 35″+ totals…which is about average for KC…and when you drill down farther…KC has had close to 46″ of moisture…more than 7″ above average! Bully for us (except for the flooding).
Now look even closer…look to the north of here…up towards St Joseph. Hmmmm interesting…some grayish colors mixing in there. Let’s drill in deeper…
The map above are precip estimates through the year…and for St Joseph it’s overestimating things by about 6″. Notice how there are some counties in NW MO extending through NE KS that haven’t exactly been overwhelmed with moisture.
St Joseph is reporting only 26″ of moisture in 2017. Again…KCI has had 46″…St Joe has had 26″. That is a remarkable change of 20″ over a distance of 33 miles! Notice how the totals go right back up towards the IA border again. Maryville, MO has had about 40″ of moisture.
This is about St Joseph though…this is just sort of weird. They missed out on some of the flooding rains that KC saw this year. About 15-20+” of rain came over the course of 3 2-day periods in KC. That too is fascinating as well.
Here is a breakdown of what happened (or really didn’t happen) up there this year.
Everything more or less was going fine till about June 1st…notice how the top normal line separates more and more from the green middle line (actual totals).
Pretty remarkable…and it’s just “one of those things” really. There is no explanation really. It would be one thing IF there was a large dry area going farther north into IA or something…but it’s just this weird “lack of moisture” zone. Missing out on the big events that we had in the KC area was crucial in keeping their totals lower. Squall lines and thunderstorms are, by nature, sort of quirky. Their speed of movement and location make all the difference in the haves (KC) and have nots..
To bring this back to the cold air scenario now…the problem is that the snows that we’re getting, because the air is so cold, are low moisture snows with high “fluff” factors. The moisture is minimal in the snow cover. So what little melts into the ground…if there’s been much melting, doesn’t really help at all. Most of the snow cover up there is basically sublimating in the the air. Sublimation is the process of going from a solid (snow) to a gas (water vapor). We’re skipping the most important part for this weird area along 36 highway in northern MO…the liquid phase (melting).
One of the weird things about 2017 overall in my opinion.
It’s something to pay attention too…as is the lack of anything “storm worthy” for the immediate future too.
Finally another cold related note…you’re home barometers are going to get a work out over the next few days. IF you have one off these…showing air pressure in millibars…
It’s going to peg wayyyyyy to the right side..a.round 1050 millibars (mbs). That equates to 31.00+” in more conventional weather lingo…and that is wayyyyy high. Your digital barometer is going to get a work out too…
Watch and see how well it does on Monday night and Tuesday AM when it should be at it’s highest.
Our feature photo comes from Mary Jo Seever. I noticed this too yesterday driving into Downtown from the northside and checking out the MO River…
Happy New Year all…and please take the wind chills and the temperatures seriously this weekend and Monday too. Don’t forget the furry ones as well…let them stay in if you can.