KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Short and sweet blog today to update the severe weather risks overnight. Overall, the day itself should be a warm and mostly dry one. There will be a chance of a few scattered storms before 10 p.m., but overall the coverage isn’t expected to be too much at this point.

The main issue will be the future development of storms, mostly in Nebraska that would have the tendency to roll down towards the region later tonight into the wee hours of Wednesday morning. Those storms should be more organized and those storms would bring the severe weather risks first to areas northwest of KC, then toward the metro.

Aside from that temperatures will be all over the place for the rest of the week, including a hot day on Thursday and then a much cooler and perhaps blustery Saturday coming toward the area.

Right now it appears Sunday will be the better of the two weekend days.

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Kansas City forecast

Today: Variable clouds, increasingly breezy and warm with highs in the 80-85 degree range. There may be some scattered storms/showers around this afternoon into this evening, but coverage may not be too great.

Tonight: Storms moving toward the area from the northwest, potentially severe with winds being the main threat. Lows in the 60-degree range.

Tomorrow: Odds favor most rain will be gone by daybreak. Then a mix of clouds and some sunshine. Highs in the 70s to near 80°

Thursday: Hotter and windy with highs approaching 90°

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Discussion

So far so good on radar this morning as I start the blog off. Yesterday I was showing you on the air a series of unorganized clusters of storms out towards the western Plains expecting most to sort of split around the region. That’s what happened.

So far we’re sort of in no man’s land regarding the rain situation.

My only thought regarding the chance of rain today is that there is some “lift” happening above us early this afternoon especially, and perhaps that could be enough to at least get some scattered activity to develop before evening. It could happen really anywhere in the viewing area.

Overall, the better lift comes later tonight.

As the day moves along we’ll see a developing cold front take form over Nebraska. That front, combined with the increasing lift in the Plains and the heating of the day should allow strong to severe storms to develop towards the northwest of the region.

As that area organizes into a Mesoscale Convective System or MCS it will start to accelerate toward the east and then east-southeast/southeast. That becomes our problem later tonight.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed our area into a level 3 out of 5 for enhanced risk of severe storms.

This sort of is from Interstate 35 west and north with the main threat being wind gusts.

Areas farther southeast of Kansas City may also see some stronger winds.

Typically in these cases the hail threat is more confined to where the storms get organized at first, and that appears to be farther northwest of the region. I can’t rule out some hail locally however.

The timing though is still a bit problematic, but odds favor a pre-2 a.m. storm line to rumble through the region. It could come earlier that that if storms organize faster, develop a larger area of rain cooled air, and sink down the Missouri River quicker.

It could be a loud night for awhile. Here’s regional radar that could be helpful overnight.

As the MCS evolves, some scattered storms are likely ahead of it, so there should be some activity before the main line comes through the area later this evening.

We’ll use the HRRR model as a potential “playout.” This is for midnight.

You can see the main line toward the northwest of the region with “appetizer” cells in advance. Often these appetizer cells show the direction that the main line will eventually turn down and into.

There will be a lot of instability above the cooling surface overnight in advance of the line of storms in Nebraska/Kansas, so the storms should be able to hold at least some strength to them UNLESS they through out a fast moving outflow boundary with is always possible with these mature overnight storm complexes.

So we’ll be watching for that eventuality as well.

More on the weekend cool shot…in tomorrow’s blog.

The feature photo comes from Sheila Jackson

Joe