Joe’s Weather Blog: Promising Next Week

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Good afternoon…I continue to be encouraged about the data for next week and the potential for rainfall…perhaps significant in areas that have been very dry for the last month or so…some longer than that.

Forecast:

Rest Of Today: You know the routine. Scattered showers with some lightning are possible as the same airmass is still in place and the atmosphere has now become unstable. activity should again move from the ESE to the WNW…after it forms. Many stay dry but many will see at least rain in the distance. Highs around 85°

Tonight: Evening activity wanes…fair skies and muggy…lows around 65°

Tomorrow: Mostly Sunny with storm chances under 20%. We should be hotter with highs in the upper 80s.

10PM Sunday-Monday: Late night/early morning storms with some potential for heavy rain depending on how they hold together. Clouds for most of the day with some clearing later on in the afternoon. Highs may only be around 80°

Discussion:

It’s been a few days worth of some vivid clouds through the region with great rainbows, pretty rain shafts in the distance and great examples of cumulus clouds that turn into cumulonimbus clouds. So many great pictures on our twitter page @fox4wx and also on the FB pages as well.

Jon Zeller sent this one in last night that Michelle showed on the air. This was near Blue Springs

Notice how vertical this cloud is…it’s because there is so little wind in the atmosphere above us that there was nothing pushing or tugging the water droplets around…so they were allowed to essentially grow straight upwards.

Eventually the upwards motion to the air wasn’t enough to hold the water droplets…like in this storm near Lees Summit…they all came straight down! Thanks Mark!

Here is another shot from Brian Smith out by the Legends…

Since the sun was in the process of setting…you also got some great rainbows…like this one!

From a distance there were so many pretty clouds…Doug sent this one in…

and finally Jon sent this view in from the Lake Of The Ozarks

Just some great shots overall…and today may follow suit as well. No real need to talk about the events today with essentially all the same players on the field for scattered storms in the afternoon in the heat of the day. Some have even formed as I’m typing this at noon.

Tomorrow the activity should be more isolated, if any at all. Hence the reason why I’m going a little warmer tomorrow afternoon for highs…on the assumption of not as much coverage to the clouds.

They we focus our attention into MON AM. Tomorrow afternoon conditions will become favorable for storms to develop in the Plains states and start marching towards the east…or east-south-east.

Here is the forecast radar off the hi-res NAM model for 7PM tomorrow night.

If all those colors look nasty…it’s because we’re anticipating severe weather in parts of the western Plains tomorrow afternoon.

What develops out there will march our way…the question is how much weakening occurs as they get to us in the wee hours of Monday morning. Here is a look at radar for 1AM Monday morning…these storms may come through the region a few hours either side of 3AM I feel. IF they come through closer to 12 AM…the potential for some wind gusts of 40-60 MPH will be present…if they hold off a few hours that potential fades more as they run into more stable conditions at the surface as they move eastwards.

The storms will then move away from us early Monday and fall apart. There will be a boundary pushed out of the storms and where it set’s up will play a role in renewed convection int he later PM Monday. I feel at this point that this may be well south of the KC area…here is forecasted radar for 1PM Monday.

Temperatures for Monday PM are tricky…should skies clear out quicker…then we could again be in the 80s…should clouds hang tough for a good part of the day…we may only be near 80°.

That soon to be boundary, as I mentioned yesterday will gradually come back northwards on Tuesday. Where that front sets up in the afternoon with the heating in play and an increasingly unstable atmosphere will be interesting to see as the potential of severe storms will be increasing. Here is the NAM forecast for Tuesday @ 1PM…should the front set up near the I-70 corridor, or perhaps farther north, that area will need to be watched carefully.

South of the warm front there will be an push of warm mid level air (the cap) that should prevent convection from forming. So perhaps the best chance of rain here will be TUE AM as the warm front moves up from the south and storms try to form with the front and ahead of the building cap heading this way.

So let’s watch Tuesday PM for the potential of nastier storms, especially to the north of the KC area.

Additional storm chances are going to come sometime WED and then perhaps on THU…so there is all sorts of potential for beneficial rainfall in the region next week…and as I’ve been saying for awhile this may be our best chance to do some catching up with the deficits in place.

Finally today I saw this on my twitter feed and since we started the blog with some great cloud photos…let’s finish the blog with one of the best pictures of a scud cloud that I’ve ever seen. This is not a tornado or a funnel cloud…it’s just a low hanging cloud.