Joe’s Weather Blog: Rain Yes…How Much Is Tricky

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Another wonderful early fall day as temperatures are in the 80s area-wide this afternoon. The winds are gusting to about 25 MPH or so and that is what I expect again tomorrow…with warm temperatures continuing until our cold front arrives.

There has been a trend in the model data to lower the amounts of rainfall…not necessarily the coverage of rain but the totals. The EURO model has been doing this for a couple of days now…suggesting more of a 1/10-1/2″ scenario for SAT AM. Our in-house models are also suggesting this as well. Take a look at the hi res NAM model showing the rainfall through 7PM Saturday courtesy of Penn State…

It too is on the low side with amounts under 1/4″ for many of us.

At this point the one model which not surprising is the “wettest” is the GFS. Here are it’s thoughts…

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The lower res NAM model is also somewhat more encouraging with the amounts…

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My interpretation hasn’t changed for this set-up yet. I’ll still ride with my 1/4-3/4″ forecast for another day. One of the big differences between this front and the one a week ago that gave us 1-3+” of of rain is this line will move through quicker and there won’t be the training factor with this and finally this is coming through in the AM and not in the late PM hours where the instability was MUCH higher.

I’m still expecting this to blow through over the course of 3-6 hours and that by Saturday afternoon we should rapidly clear out from KC northwards and temperatures which may drop during the AM hours from near 70° @ daybreak with rain to the west to near 60° by late AM to near 70° by the time the sun goes down…so a bit of a roller-coaster for the temperatures to start the weekend. Sunday looks great with highs in the 70s and the warmth will continue through early next week with a return to the 80s likely.

There are still some suggestions of a decent outbreak of cold air NEXT weekend on the EURO. Today the GFS has backed off a bit for next weekend but still shows a cool down at the very least…It’s not unusual that as the seasons change and the jetstream aloft through the hemisphere gets stronger, to see a reduction of forecast confidence and down the road accuracy.  So the forecast will be a changeable one, especially in the 5-10 day thinking…this should continue, depending on the pattern at the time for another 15 days or so before things level off for awhile I feel.

To give you a rough idea of what I’m thinking right now, at least for the next 7 days…take a look at the EURO forecast for temperatures/rainfall.

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The highest rain chance on Saturday (28th) is from 7AM-1PM or so.

Meanwhile up on Mt Rainer @ 10,000 feet, there is snow up on those mountains…

 

The season’s are a’changin’!

Joe

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