Joe’s Weather Blog: Rainfall Totals

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Well the storm pretty much did everything we thought it would as the heaviest part of the storm was last night and early this AM. Rainfall amounts were not overwhelming but certainly another good soaking fell through most of the region. It seems the rainfall was between 3/4″-1.5″ or so. Here are the totals from the northside to the southside.

ScreenHunter_01 Nov. 06 07.55

ScreenHunter_02 Nov. 06 07.55

ScreenHunter_03 Nov. 06 07.56

Most of the rain from the storm has moved towards the east of the region…

 

For us in the KC area, a lot of cloud cover has hung around as the colder air moved in overnight. We dropped 20° or so over the course of about 8 hours as the front moved through the region.

 

Hopefully we’ll see clearing skies during the afternoon. Regardless a blustery day is on tap with highs in the 40s. We just had the rain…but areas north of the Plains had snow. Take a look at how much feel with this system…at least so far. It looks like the Minneapolis, MN area had about 2-3″

As I mentioned last weekend, this will be the storm of the week. Not much else from an active weather standpoint is expected till the early or middle part of NEXT week. basically very typical early November weather is expected in the region for the next 5 days or so.

What kind of blog would this be if I didn’t talk about the next potential change in our weather? For that we’ll head up to the Yukon of Canada where I’m starting to watch a colder airmass develop that will roll down through the northern Plains early next week and take aim towards the Great Lakes region as well as the NE part of the country, especially New England. We will dip into that cold airmass for a few days I think on Tuesday. The airmass may be a “shallow” one. This means that the cold air may be only a few thousand feet deep with the colder and denser airmass across the I-80-90-94 corridors across the northern part of the country.

Here is a look at the EURO model forecast for the next 10 days…this graph shows the “operational” run which many meteorologists only look at…and the “ensemble” runs which is a combination of EURO model forecasts that typically give a more accurate forecast. For the most part there is good agreement for the next 5 days in terms of temperatures, but then there are differences next week as the model(s) try and figure out how cold it will or won’t get. Click on that graphic to make it larger and more readable.

ScreenHunter_04 Nov. 06 08.17

Basically the ensembles are NOT as cold as the operational run next week. What this tells me is that the chances of us getting just a glancing blow from the colder airmass is higher that getting a direct shot of cold air coming down the Plains. So while cooler for the middle of next week, it won’t be anything terrible. One thing to be aware of is when we get these shallow intrusions of cold air, with the flow aloft being across the Rockies, there’s a tendency for a lot of clouds to form. Should there be a disturbance crossing the Rockies as well…it could create more rain by next WED. Actually IF this was the winter it would be a classic ice-storm/sleet storm set-up…so thankfully with the this being November that is not an issue with this particular scenario.

Now IF this would’ve been the dead of winter, with a lot of snowcover along and north of the I-80 corridor, then we’d probably be colder relative to average as that refrigerated air moved into our region.

That’s it for today…have a great Wednesday! I may start dabbling a bit into the winter forecast ingredients that I’m looking at over the next couple of weeks. I’ve got a few ideas that I want to share with you.

Joe

 

 

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