Joe’s Weather Blog: Royals forecast +Needed rain in KC (FRI-10/30)

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Good morning…clouds have moved into the region rather quickly this morning and temperatures, after a cold start this morning, will struggle today because of a lack of sunshine. The faster arrival of the clouds means the rain should move in faster as well…sometime this evening so HS football games may be affected. Thankfully the Royals are in NY for game #3 tonight where things will be dry for the game.

Forecast:

Today: Mostly cloudy and cool with highs around 55°

Tonight: Light rain increases in coverage this evening and moderate rain is likely overnight into early Saturday. Temperatures drop into the 40s.

Saturday: Rain winds down during the AM hours and we should see sunshine in the afternoon. Right now it appears that the evening will be fine but cool for the Trick Or Treaters. Highs Saturday well into the 50s in the afternoon with 40s likely in the later evening hours.

Sunday: Sunny and milder with highs near 70°

Discussion:

First things first…the weather looks fine in the NYC area this evening and really through the entire weekend. So that’s good news…IF the Royals need a game #6 in KC…it will be warmer here although it might be breezy as well.

Onto our weather situation in KC.

Clouds have moved into the area…and it appears they will be with us through lunch tomorrow. The water vapor images today reveal quite a bit of moisture streaming this way.

 

Look closely today and you can see a strong upper level wave into the SW part of the country spinning. Ahead of the wave the moisture will continue to thicken up through the atmosphere today into tonight…and eventually things will become saturated and rain will fall this evening.

Even though wave will still be in the southern Plains tomorrow afternoon, the moisture plume will start shifting east rather quickly in the AM hours on Saturday…so we’re looking pretty good for the vast majority of the weekend.

The good news is that this may actually end up being a decent+ rain in KC, with the potential of it being the best rain in KC since the 4″+ rain about 6 weeks ago and we can definitely use the rainfall. Data so far today indicates 1/2-1 1/4″ of rain in the KC area. We won’t get what’s happening in TX right now…

There are widespread 6-12″ totals down in parts of central TX…and the flooding is bad down there!

Here is the latest NAM model…which shows the evolution of the rain into and through the region.

For timing purposes…12Z is 7AM…18Z is 1PM…00Z is 7PM and 06Z is 1AM. (note that this changes on Sunday when the time changes…we’ll be subtracting 1 hour from the times above)

The rain totals are looking promising for the area…the morning run of the NAM model has a broad swath of 1/2″++ rainfall in the KC region.

nam_total_precip_mc_17

and the higher res NAM model shows some 1″+ totals for the KC area…

hires_tprecip_kc_49

Behind this storm there really isn’t any cold air to move through the area…and another rather strong storm will be dropping through the western part of the country. As it does so the winds aloft and at the surface will be more from the SW and S…this means a significant warm-up is on tap from Sunday>Wednesday of next week with highs in the 75-80° range. We may stay warm into Thursday as well, but a cold front will be in the area at some point next Thursday…dropping our temperatures into Friday timed for when the western storm moves through the region.

That second storm (the one for later next week) has promise of delivering another good round of rain in the area.

Another note…it appears, while there may be a couple of cool downs behind these storms that are brief, that there is overall a warm trend to come as we start the month of November.

 

The map above shows the probabilities of seeing above average temperatures…and in all honesty my confidence is even higher that the map above for the KC area for that time frame (11/6-12)

So aside from the rain, overall the forecast is rather mild through mid November it appears.

Joe

 

 

 

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