Joe’s Weather Blog: Snow out west… cold for KC (MON-11/1)

Weather Blog

KANSAS CITY, Mo. — It was a wet and mild month for October. Temperatures ran over 3° above average and rain was over 5 inches worth, almost 2 inches above average. The last time we were below average for temperatures (just barely) was in May. Before that was the brutal month of February. Only two months below average so far in 2021.

February though was brutal, more than 10° below average. But in the last five months, four have been at least 3° above average, so we sort of made up for that brutal month of February if you know what I mean and then some I guess.

The first week of November though will be below average for sure, as chilly weather has moved into the region and with an expansive cold air mass on top of the Plains. We won’t see 60° for a while I think.

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Forecast:

Today: Cloudy with some sprinkles/drizzle/light rain at times in the afternoon mainly. Highs about where we are as I type this, in the lower-to-mid-40s. If there was a random snowflake or ice pellet somewhere it wouldn’t surprise me.

Tonight: Clouds break a bit with lows in the 30s.

Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy and cool with highs well into the 40s.

Wednesday: More sunshine and chilly with highs in the upper 40s.

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Discussion:

Yeah, not the brightest of starts to a new month or a new work week… one of those days where a good nap might be nice.

Radar this morning shows a lot of activity out there, but there is also a lot of dry air below 10,000 feet that needs saturating to allow some of that to reach the ground.

The balloon launch this morning from Topeka, Kansas showed the drier air well that the precipitation above needs to saturate/overcome before it reaches the ground.

As a matter of fact, the surface obs from the various airports in the Plains shows (at 8 a.m.) that really nothing but perhaps a sprinkle or two is making it to the surface. This should change as the morning/afternoon moves along.

I’ve outlined the 8 a.m. snow reports in blue, and the rain reports in green:

Whatever we get today locally will be rather minor, likely under 1/10 inch or so. More of a nuisance than anything else, and odds are it will be done before the game to a large extent too. There may be actually some light rain around for tailgating as the whole thing starts to move away. The game itself though will be chilly, but the winds will be light so that’s helpful I guess.

The cold front that is doing this to us moved in on Saturday night. Yesterday was a windy day, but we still got well into the 50s. Today because of various disturbances coming over the cooler surface air and a lack of much wind, it will be tough for us to warm up much at all. There may be a few areas than can get above 47° but odds are they will be on the Missouri side.

So a new month has started. Here is what is considered “average” for highs an lows. Our overall average temperature for the month goes from 50° to 38° by the end of the month. We average 2 inches of moisture this month, including 1.1 inches of snow.

As far as the snow goes, there may be a couple of flakes mixed in somewhere today, especially in northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas. No accumulations are expected though.

The week overall won’t be terrible, but it will be chilly. Clouds will be around tomorrow, then we should see more sunshine after that, and no this is not the descent into a cold month. As a matter of fact, after we get through the next few days, we should moderate nicely and next week may be rather pleasant.

Here is a look at two models. The EURO and the GFS ensembles show the forecasted highs and lows through the next 10 days or so.

EURO
GFS

You can see that we’ll be trending in the above-average direction, perhaps over the weekend and likely next week. Also of note: After today, there may not be much rain/snow around for about 10 days either. So dry and milder weather kicks in. Maybe that will get the rest of the leaves to show their colors.

On that note, we enjoyed nothing but blue skies on Saturday which gave me a chance to see how the landscape colors have been changing this season compared to the last season. I’ve talked ad nauseum about how the colors this season have been so muted, but here is visual proof from space.

Fall 2020 vs Fall 2021

These pictures were taken a year apart, and give or take a couple of days, on the same date. Slide the bar to the right and see the browns… now left and see more greens. That is the difference. That’s what we see on the ground right this year. Plenty of almost-solid green trees. It really is dramatic I think.

By the way, the official NOAA forecast for November was updated yesterday:

We’re in the 50/50 of either above-or-below average regime with the warmest conditions likely in the southwest and in the northeast.

Here is the moisture forecast (remember 2 inches is average):

again in no mans land

My feelings is that we’re going to be above average for temperatures when things are all said and done this month. Because after these next few days, we should be milder for about 10-plus days or so, with a couple of speedbumps along the way I think.

Lara Bee has the feature photo of the month from up at Worlds of Fun.

Joe

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