KANSAS CITY, Mo. — In the big scheme of snows this won’t be that terrible. The flakes are pretty small and are struggling to add up.

Some model data this morning is indicating that we’re going to end up on the lowest side of the range of potential, more in the 3 to 5-inch range for many areas around Kansas City.

There are numerous crashes this morning as anticipated and roads are slick. Conditions will vary through the day as the snow increases and then wanes.

During the afternoon, things will improve and overnight another wave will likely mostly slide southeast of Kansas City. So what happens Thursday will be the bulk of the accumulations for the vast majority of the metro.

The good news is the dry powdery snow will melt quickly tomorrow and Saturday, and then we should warm up nicely beyond that. Like most of the snows this winter, it’s gone in the course of a few days.

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4 day forecast:

Today: Snowy at times. Breezy and cold. Temperatures only in the low-to-mid-20s. Accumulations 3-5 inches or so. Some a bit less up on the north side, perhaps a bit more southeast of Kansas City with a second potential wave of snow overnight.

Tonight: Some light snow possible, mostly on the south and southeast side of KC and southwards. This will likely affect more areas south of US 50 than north of Interstate 70.

Tomorrow: Any snow on the south side ends in the AM. Overall variable clouds and cold with highs in the 30s.

This weekend: Chilly on Saturday with highs in the mid-30s. Warmer Sunday with highs approaching 60 degrees. Windier Sunday too, gusts to 25 mph likely.

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Discussion:

Last night I noticed a small reduction in the precipitation that the data was cranking out. As a result, I decided to lower the totals just a bit. Looking at the model outputs for totals and converting it to snow, odds favor more of a 3 to 5-inch event for Kansas City.

So far, snow totals coming in are running roughly 2-4 inches from Lawrence, Kansas west. As I type this, there are some nice reflectivities showing up approaching parts of the metro.

Overall OK. We’re still going to be watching how the snow tonight comes together and where the best banding occurs. Again, odds favor areas southeast of the metro to be most impacted by this.

I

Total precipitation for the system.

Remember yesterday we were counting on close to 4/10-plus inch of moisture. That looks to be cut by 25%. So that is a problem. Ratios or not.

If we don’t get that amount of moisture, we can’t get that amount of snow, hence it will be tough to get anything more than 4 inches or so.

Radar Thursday morning:

Areas southeast of Kansas City may see a bit more. Out toward Warrensburg and Sedalia in Missouri, maybe closer to 4-5 inches with the second wave of light snow overnight.

Here is how the HRRR model plays out, and it seems about right:

For timing… 18Z is Noon…21Z is 3PM…0Z is 6PM and 3Z is 9PM…6Z is 12AM

You can see a definite break in the snow this evening before we try to see the snow come back together near the I-35 corridor overnight. It quickly sags southeast away from the metro by daybreak tomorrow.

This may create and additional 1-2 inches of snow in areas that have it the longest, southeast of Kansas City.

The record of 6 inches of snow on today’s date looks to be safe I think up at KCI.

Those higher-end range numbers from the last 24 hours aren’t going to happen.

The good news is that the lesser snow totals mean a faster melt off over the next 48 hours. Get rid of the snow, add to the warmth. We should pop into the 30s Friday and Saturday, then approach 60 degress on Sunday and Monday before we make a run towards 70 degrees or higher after that.

So let’s end this blog on a warmer note: The 6-10 day forecast.

Even the 8-14 outlook is pretty good too!

The feature photo comes from Chuck Carbajal.

Joe