Joe’s Weather Blog: So how unusual is this weather (FRI-12/10)

Weather Blog

It’s Friday and if you’re reading this blog early this morning it’s starting out pretty gray but things will rapidly change heading towards lunch and afterwards as a surge of warmer air will be coming up the State Line area as a warm front pops northwards. This will again send temperatures well into the 60s with a small chance of tying or breaking the record high of 69° set back in 1970. we’ve already broke one record high this month. There are two and maybe three others that are vulnerable next week too.

Then a seasonably strong cold front will come through the region this evening and in a night reminiscent of this past Sunday night…temperatures will drop quickly and the winds may gust to 45 MPH as we go through the night!

All in a days weather in KC…in what is turning into a weird December as October weather or late March weather continues…with another weird week ahead next week.

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Forecast:

Today: Mostly cloudy and turning warmer. Breezy to windy too with highs 65-70° but chillier in northern MO

Tonight: Windy and turning colder after sunset. Lows dropping to near 30° with wind chills into the teens overnight. There may be a few passing sprinkles or lighter showers early this evening as well

Tomorrow: Sunny and breezy with highs in the 45-50°

Sunday: Windy and milder with highs in the mid to upper 50s

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Discussion:

Yesterday I spent part of my afternoon digging through and creating some stats trying to show the “unusualness” of the weather lately. The fact that we haven’t had any measurable snow through today’s date actually is the less unusual stat to me at this point.

Today will be the 6th day this month with highs in the 60s+. On average we have 2 days in December (going back to 1899). The record is 14 back in 1899 as a matter of fact. There are more 60s+ coming next week…likely at least 3 more…and depending on the timing of the front later Wednesday or early Thursday morning…there could be a 12AM high Thursday in the 60s too!

On average in December we don’t really hit 70°+. The record for December is 2 times…we’ve already hit this once. last week…and we have a chance of hitting it 2 more times next week. IF we get to 3 times in December that hasn’t happened before.

Overall we’ve only hit 70° or higher 15 times in December, including the one time already this month…that is 31 days of December going back to 1889. That is over 4000 December days in total. 15 times is not too many…and that we can add two more next week really is cray cray.

The latest 70° or higher days in December are below. The record is the 27th.

It’s not out of the question we can make a run towards our all time high in December of 74° next week too.

So all sorts of weird warmth records are out there…and by the end of next week…we’ll be well into the Top 3 of warmest December starts as well.

So yes…this is weird.

Oh and IF you’re a snow lover…I don’t see anything to get too excited about really…aside from maybe some casual flakes at some point. At least for the next 10 days or so. Once we get towards Christmas week…at least there may be some cold air around…but I’m not sure we’re going to be set up for the combination of cold and moisture for snow…we may be losing the colder air as we get some moisture. That’s a long ways out there though and we’ll look at that later next week perhaps.

Today is another interesting weather day as we’re starting out mild (by mid December standards) and waiting on a cold front to pop northwards. The surface storm will be coming right towards KC later today…its out towards the KS/CO border area this morning.

In actuality this is a severe weather set-up BUT no severe weather is expected locally with this as the moisture will be moving away from the area as we break the clouds up today. This set-up though in the Spring months would bring tornadoes to the MO side close to KC with a more volatile atmosphere and higher dew points.

Farther north…it’s a good snow storm set-up towards the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Minneapolis may be on the northern edge of things.

Farther west…

So big snows up north…and an overnight severe weather threat with likely tornadoes towards the SE/E of the area too.

This is a higher end tornado risk night too…fast moving overnight tornadoes aren’t a fun thing to deal with.

The hatched area represents a stronger tornado risk

So this storm has a lot going for it…except for us it’s really just a temperature and wind generator.

What is really strong about this though is that the colder air that spills into the area is brief…really about 18 hours worth…and then it too rolls away tomorrow afternoon. Now that is bizarre for December!

We should get back into the mid 40s (seasonable) for tomorrow afternoon after a blustery start to the day in the morning.

From that point we warm up…50s on Sunday with windy conditions developing…60s Monday through Wednesday with 70s possible Tuesday and Wednesday.

Record highs are possible to likely. Here are the records for Tuesday. Note the 3 days in the 2000s that are in the list as the warmest days for the 14th

Now the 15th (Wednesday)

So since 2000…5 of these warm mid December days have occurred. Just sayin’.

Here are the records for the 16th (Thursday). This is a bit more of a long shot…and would need the front to slow down by 6-12 hours or so and come in after 12AM Thursday…IF that happens it’s possible we could have a 12AM high…and that would bring these records into play.

Another post 2000 record in there as you notice.

One would say it’s almost as if something has changed.

Hopefully we get some needed rain in the next change…at least something should happen with the late Wednesday and early Thursday front. Dew points may surge towards the 60s with this front coming. Dew points in the 60s in December don’t happen all that often. Take a look at the previous 60° or higher dew points in December. Only 8 days since the early 70s. Possible we can get there Wednesday

OK that’s a lot to digest! The feature photo was a beautiful sunset via Sheila Jackson

Joe

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