Joe’s Weather Blog: Some rain coming as we dry out (MON-9/13)

Weather Blog

Good Monday to you…it’s still late summer around here, for about another week or so and it will feel like it again for much of this week. Decent south breezes will be replaced by a NW wind developing behind a not strong cold front that will be coming into the region tomorrow.

It’s not a slam dunk for all areas to get moisture. The entire region though could use a nice drink of 1″ of rain after some dry weather recently. The hotter weather and the winds of late has really dried the top soil quite a bit so the grass certainly needs some water.

There is an overall warm dry patter in place though so we’ll hope things do come together tomorrow…there isn’t a lot coming this week after that.

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Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny, warm and breezy again today with highs in the 85-90° range.

Tonight: Breezy and mild with lows in the mid to upper 60s

Tomorrow: Increasing clouds and a threat of showers and storms developing although most of the day shold be dry. Highs in the mid 80s. Breezy as well

Wednesday: Any threat of rain ends early in the morning. Then variable clouds and not as warm with highs closer to 80°

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Discussion:

It’s been a pretty warm September so far. Temperatures this month are running about 2° above average. That after a 3° above average August and while the cold front coming will droop us a few degrees for the middle of the week…overall the trend is looking warm again later in the week and into next week.

Model data is overall above average almost every day for the next 10-14 days.

During this time of the year the average high is around 80° or so. So you can see it might be awhile where things trend a bit cooler.

The GFS ensembles agree as well.

Both models are suggesting another pretty hot weekend too.

We’ve had a lot of atmospheric smoke in the air these days. Really predominant over the weekend contributing to temperatures running a bit below their potential. Will all the wind and dry low levels…we should’ve been around 90° or so…but we couldn’t get strong enough sun to get through all the smoke I think. There should be a reduction in the smoke tomorrow.

The cold front tomorrow will be coming through during the day…and should be towards the south of the I-70 corridor tomorrow afternoon and evening. The best instability will be on the south side it appears Tuesday afternoon and evening. That may well end up being the best chance of seeing at least some storms firing up later in the day.

There may be some showers around the Metro but right now, unless that front slows a bit (which is possible) this may not be a big deal in the KC area.

The overnight data wasn’t too thrilling…here is the hi-res NAM.

The early morning HRRR model isn’t too thrilling either. There may be some shower/storm activity post front though.

Typically though that wouldn’t be a lot.

So at least right now…meh as far as the rain situation goes. It could change and I’ll be watching the new information today.

The big story today though is the new tropical storm, Nicholas, that has formed in the western Gulf region.

The main thing for this will be flooding rains…

Here is radar from the NWS in the Houston area.

This could be a 5-12+” rain storm down there today and tomorrow before shifting more into SW LA heading into Wednesday

SW LA will be getting into it as well.

So a lot of rain down there for sure.

OK that’s it for today…I have a few things happening tomorrow so no blog on Tuesday. See you again on Wednesday. The feature photo today is from

That is a product of a lot of weekend smoke.

Joe

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