Joe's Weather Blog: Some signs of more active weather for mid month (MON-1/6)

Weather Blog

Hope you had a nice weekend…the weather again cooperated nicely didn’t it? Today will be our 19th straight day of above average temperatures…heck this morning we’re starting 10° above average already, and while today won’t be in the 50s it should still be about 10° above average and we’re going to stretch that streak to at least 22 days straight and maybe 23° depending on the timing of the colder transition later in the week…that’s pretty remarkable.

Through yesterday this is the 3rd warmest start to winter in KC weather history (at least since the 21st of December). Now granted winter starts some years on the 20th and I haven’t done those back calculations but I’d hazard a solid guess that that won’t change things. Data below.



  • Forecast:

Today: Variable clouds and pleasant by January standards…highs in the low>mid 40s

Tonight: Fair skies and chilly with lows in the mid>upper 20s

Tomorrow: Mostly sunny and nice with highs in the 45-50° range

Wednesday: Milder with highs in the 50s with increasing PM winds into Wednesday night



  • Discussion:

Let’s start the blog with the story of the warmth…these are the rankings of the warmest 12/21-1/5 time periods in KC weather history…we keep going up on this list and this week will be no exception..at least into Friday.

No I know what you’re thinking…wow such a warm start to winter…are we cancelling winter this year?

No.

For giggles I looked back into last year…remember we had only had .5″ of snow in December of 2018…then January of 2019 started pretty mild as well…and then there was this thing called the Polar Vortex that reared it’s ugly head towards the last 1/3rd of the month.

Now granted we were on our way already thanks to the Thanksgiving Weekend blizzard in 2018…but after that it was quiet through about the 11th of January…then the last 2/3rds of January we had close to 9″ of snow.

I highlighted the departures from average and the snow amounts each day…we had a storm on the 11th and 12th and then incremental snows for the rest of the month with some bitterly cold air every so often interspersed with some reasonable temperatures as repetitive cold fronts came through the region.

So no, winter is not cancelled and actually today the EURO guidance along with the GFS data is showing the return of colder weather into at least the northern US…and that may start setting the stage later this week into the end of the month for a more active storm track(s) and systems that will work with the building temperature contrasts.

Before we get there though…more mild weather is ahead…at least through Thursday…and maybe at times even beyond that through mid month.

Take a look at these 5 day averaged temperatures for the North America…

Very stark contrast. For the eastern 1/4 of the country…potentially record breaking warmth. We’re talking some individual days with temperatures 25-35°+ above average…60s or higher possible for some areas from the Ohio Valley towards the NE part of the country into the weekend.

Now notice the bitterly cold air towards the far northern Rockies and into the SW parts of Canada and western Canada as a whole…that’s some nasty cold air up there…

There are signs that that nasty cold air will spill into the northern US sometime in about a week or so and at some point I’d be surprised If we didn’t deal with it towards the KC region…but it’s still awhile away.

That doesn’t mean it’s going to be this mild through then…there will be at least a return closer to average Friday into Saturday and that return may be marked by some wintry weather.

I’m not jumping up and down about that aspect of things right now though…there may be timing issues regarding getting enough cold air in the atmosphere above us to sync up for all this…the data today shows a wintry mix developing Friday night…we’re still not cold enough about 5,000 feet up to support ALL snow…until sometime late Friday night into Saturday morning. We’ll see how much moisture is left behind to work with when things do sync up.

Again I’ll wait a few more days before I get revved up about this potential…here are the GFS ensemble “plumes” for snow totals.

The average is just shy of 1″…

Look at this neat shot from Matt via twitter…

Joe

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