This is going to be a typical week of Spring weather. Remember we’re into the wettest time of the year, and there will be opportunities for picking up some rain.

The storms Sunday morning were impressive for sure…and they produced some nice rains too, and one heck of a shelf cloud.

The rain chances will be increasing tomorrow into tomorrow night and early Wednesday…then perhaps again on Friday…so it won’t be a dry week.

Plus a rather substantial cold front will come through the area at some point on Friday…IF it slows down…there may be a severe weather outbreak nearby. That will need to be watched. There is also a risk of some stronger storms tomorrow night as well.

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Forecast:

Today: Just beautiful…highs near 80°

Tonight: Fair and pleasant with lows near 60°

Tomorrow: Variable clouds with thunderstorm chances around. It won’t rain for all…highs in the lower 80s

Wednesday: Storms fade or move away early in the morning…then clouds and sunshine. Highs well into the 70s

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Discussion:

Let’s start with the eclipse from last night…it was neat to watch. For the most part skies cleared out and I got a ton of pictures as the earth was passing between the sun and the moon casting a shadow on the moon’s surface.

Mathew Smith with the great shot of the eclipse.

Very nice and glad the clouds cooperated.

Onwards…

The weather will not be boring this week. There are rain opportunities showing up including tomorrow. It’s not that cut and dried though as we’ll be under a westerly flow in the mid and upper levels and sort of waiting for various disturbances to ripple through.

One is due tomorrow AM…another tomorrow evening and then a stronger front sometime on Friday (timing remains to be seen on that one).

As we try and heat up tomorrow there will be a lot of instability around, even after whatever happens in the morning moves away. Some short range model data suggests that highs may get well into the 80s later tomorrow.

If this is true…this will send the instability really up there in the region as a whole. Remember we look at this using what we refer to as CAPES…or Convective Available Potential Energy

Capes over 1500 during May are worth watching…over 2500 gets my attention

Now the issue in the afternoon becomes is there a trigger, aside from the heating, to get the atmosphere fired up…and that is not set in stone.

There appears to be one though potentially tomorrow night…and there should still be instability out there and perhaps some sort of complex of storms coming into the region from the west or northwest.

That means that with the leftover instability…the complex will be coming into a somewhat favorable atmosphere to help the storms along…so I’ll be watching for the potential of some stronger storms tomorrow evening or night.

Here is the latest risk for Tuesday…

Wind and hail are the main threats locally…and more likely at night into early Wednesday

Right now it appears Wednesday and Thursday should be OK.

We’ll see about the Friday thing…this will be a decently strong May cold front coming into the region…and that would be concerning given the time of the year. The model data though is sort of split in the timing of the front. The EURO for example speeds it through in the morning…before we can get too unstable…the GFS is a bit slower and would have a higher risk of developing storms BUT the GFS also has a rather stout cap that would need to be overcome…so there are negatives to the set-up on Friday from the various pieces of data.

The SPC has risks to the north of the region on Thursday and to the south of the region on Friday. Let’s see how this plays out.

We should though get a nice dump of cooler air for Saturday and the weekend may only feature highs in the 60s perhaps some lower 70s Sunday. We’ll warm up early next week.

Speaking of warmth…one of the items that has been catching my attention lately is the extremely hot weather in the southern Plains.

Records are possible this week all over the place in the south and southeast.

Near record to record warmth today
Tomorrow
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday

A lot of heat…just sitting there. Makes me wonder.

Joe