Everything is progressing according to my thoughts from last weekend…there are some timing issues that will affect the potential of stronger to severe storms, and given an even slower movement to the storm (let’s say another 3-6 hrs) the main risk of severe storms may very well stay out towards the west and far NW of the KC area…should this occur, we’ll deal with a very FAST moving area of rain that will hit sometime later Friday night into VERY early SAT AM and not effect the daytime hours of either day.
Our storm is now off the coast of the PAC NW and will be entering the country later today into tonight…it’s bringing another onslaught of moisture in the PAC NW…especially OR and WA right now…here is a satellite image from Penn State.
Here is a look at the NAM model showing the forecast positioning of the upper level storm as it moves from the Rockies into the N Plains into the weekend…you can see it really wrapping up and then moving the the NE.
Now same model…except showing the surface features…including the precipitation heading into the weekend. On the back side of the storm, up across SD/ND…there may be a band of heavy wet snow (maybe even some thunder?) so the seasons 1st snowstorm up there is possible.
For the purpose of timing…00Z is 7PM…06Z is 1AM…12Z is 7AM and 18Z is 1PM. So when the maps say 00Z SAT…that is really (7PM FRI)…I know that’s a bit confusing.
So as the storm develops aloft and at the surface it will continue to suck in moisture from the south…dewpoints should rise to the mid 60s on FRI through the Plains. As mentioned several times before the chances of severe weather are there, but there is still a question of location…with odds favoring areas west of the KC metro. Here is the forecast from the SPC.
Here is my forecast for 1AM SAT morning…basically I’ve slowed the NAM model down by about 6 hours…
The blue line represents the cold front…and the RED dashes are the isotherms (lines of equal temperatures).
The colder air will blast into the area early SAT AM and sweep the rain away…I continue to feel the daytime hours on SAT be fine…as a matter of fact we should see sunny conditions for awhile SAT before potentially some lower clouds wrap back in behind the storm system in the PM. The big deal though on SAT will be the blustery conditions as temperatures SAT PM may only be in the 55-60° and feel colder than that.
Gardener’s need to pay attention to the forecast lows for SUN AM and MON AM as readings in the 35-40° are certainly doable.
That’s it for today…have a wonderful Wednesday!