Joe’s Weather Blog: The snowiest week of winter for KC (2/11)

Weather Blog
This is an archived article and the information in the article may be outdated. Please look at the time stamp on the story to see when it was last updated.

No the title of today’s blog is NOT what you think. I’ll get to that in a few minutes…chilly out there now and there is colder weather coming into the area tomorrow afternoon and into Saturday especially…but after that…things are looking much better for next week mostly…as we’re going to get another taste of spring with the only question being when will the warmest day of next week be.

Forecast:

Tonight: Variable clouds and chilly. Not terribly cold though with lows into the 20s. There may be some snow towards the NE of the KC area…won’t affect the KC metro though.

Friday: We may warm up a bit in the morning through early afternoon. An arctic front will be moving into the area sometime tomorrow afternoon. Winds will be increasing from the north at 15-25 MPH and the temperatures will level off then drop off towards evening. Wind chill factors will be in the teens tomorrow evening. Highs around 35° before the front knocks things down to the 20s later in the afternoon.

Saturday: Cold with morning lows near 10°…maybe colder with clearer skies in some areas. Then mostly cloudy and chilly with highs in the 20s

Discussion:

A couple of quick notes…

  1. the arctic air coming into the area later tomorrow into Saturday will be pretty darn chilly…but the worst will be felt towards the NE part of the country. As a matter of fact, at least aloft, this will be one of the coldest air masses just above the surface, in weather record history. At the surface there is a good chance of seeing quite a few record lows in the northeast and New England region over the weekend. The coldest morning appears to be Sunday morning for that part of the country with sub-zero lows possible even into the big cities of NY and Boston.

    blend_t2min_ne_4
    Morning lows on Sunday
  2. Our lows here may be tempered somewhat by cloud cover issues over the weekend. Should skies be clearer we may see lows Saturday morning drop into the single digits…this is a rather strong area of high pressure building southwards. Also I’m issuing an ACHES and Pain Alert in effect later Friday through Sunday morning due to the building pressures. The forecast surface map for Saturday morning shows a 1044 mb surface high in the upper Midwest. Your home barometer will be all the way up to about 30.70″ or so…pretty darn high! That is representative of cold, dense (heavy in a sense) air sitting on top of the area.

    displayMod.php
    Saturday morning surface map
  3. As far as Sunday goes…there is going to be a disturbance dropping from the western parts of SD towards the western part of IA. This will help shove out the cold air mass later Saturday and warmer air will start to return northwards, especially aloft Saturday night. Odds at this point favor the best lift to be north and NE of the KC area…this is where there should be some snow…towards north central/NE MO and E MO as well. Here in KC…we MAY see some freezing mist develop with some lower level moisture…the chances of this are there but not overwhelming to me at this point. On the assumption that the disturbance passes that far north of KC…the better mid-level moisture will remain well north and east of the KC area…so snow will be tough to come by locally…it’s something to monitor just in case…but right now I’m not overly excited.
  4. We will warm up significantly next week but the warmest of the air may come THU>FRI…with increasing potential of 70°+ on either or both of those days with the right combination of sunshine and wind.
  5. Finally I did a quick research project today…basically trying to find the “snowiest” week in KC. I started things off on 10/1 and went every 7 days through early April. I started in 1940 and went through last year. I added up all the snows that we saw during each week and tallied them up into grand totals for the week overall. for example the week of 10/1-10/7 then 10/8-10/14 etc. This is what I came up with.

    image
    Week by week snow in KC from 1940 through 2015
  6. So the “snowiest” week is the week of 1/14…followed by the week of 12/31 and then the week of 2/25. What’s interesting to me is the sharp drop off in total snow from the week of 3/3 to the week of 3/10…from 91″>52″. We’ll see if there is any late season snow “magic” in our future…the trends though aren’t so great and we’re stuck on 5.3″ so far this snow year (since 10/1)

That’s it for today…have a great Thursday and I’ll keep an eye on the Valentine Day situation!

Joe

 

 

Weather News

Popular

Latest

More News