Joe’s Weather Blog: Typical winter days minus the snowstorms (FRI-1/8)

Weather Blog

This morning may actually not be too bad. Satellite pictures, as I start this blog, don’t show low clouds around the Metro. We’ll probably see more move in from the east later this morning but at least for awhile today, there may be some decent sunshine.

These breaks in the clouds are always tough to figure out. Last night was actually a pretty clear night overall…didn’t catch on to that until the 10 p.m. news or so.

We’ll see about the weekend, but there may be breaks every so often.

I still expect warmer weather next week…really every day will be above average until perhaps Friday. Temperatures in the 50s are very doable and maybe 60s too, especially on Wednesday.

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Forecast:

Today: Variable clouds this morning then perhaps mostly cloudy this afternoon. Highs in the mid 30s with enough morning sunshine.

Tonight: We should be cloudy with above-average lows in the upper 20s.

Tomorrow and Sunday: Mostly cloudy and chilly with highs in the 35° range.

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Discussion:

I don’t really have a lot to write about today…just a few things really.

  1. So about the snow situation: Not good this season. KCI officially has had just shy of 3.5″ of snow. Granted some of you with more than that by several inches. It’s not even a few weeks into the winter season though on the calendar at least. Still time. As a matter of fact, take a look at the last 35 years of snow since January 9 for the rest of the winter season. There have been good pops and not so much when it comes to the snow accumulations.

So we’ll see…but at least for now, through the next 7-10 days, not much, if any is expected.

There are a couple of ensemble members of the EURO model poking around on something around the 20th or so.

Here are the 50 or so EURO ensemble members. A couple are sniffing something out after mid month

The GFS ensembles are also trying to “see” something in that time frame, or at least a couple of the members are too.

2) The temperatures will moderate next week, probably faster and more dramatic than some meteorologists think. One reason is again a perfect downslope warming scenario where air descends from the High Plains towards the Missouri River area. That squeezes the air and allows it to warm-up nicely. Aggressive temperature forecasts are probably the way to go, especially on Wednesday and then depending on the timing of the cold front Thursday…perhaps Thursday too, since we’ll be in a warm bubble of air to at least start the day. As usual, some others will be playing catch-up on this into next week.

There is a lack of snowcover in the western Plains though.

That lack of snow cover is important in that specified area of most of Nebraska and the western parts of the Dakotas because our air will be coming down the slopes of the western Plains. No snow there allows the air to really warm-up.

When I start seeing nearly +10°C a few thousand feet above us for Wednesday…and assuming there is enough wind and a lack of clouds…that’s should be 55-60° right there I think.

Also notice it’s even warmer to the northwest of here (at that level)…so IF things move a bit quicker along, we could be in even warmer air on Wednesday afternoon.

It’s what I refer to as a downslope warming “special” and it is increasingly likely.

3) It’s climatologically the right time…they call it the January Thaw for a reason right?

4) Beyond that though, some chillier weather every so often BUT with warm-ups in between. With that said though, no true Arctic outbreaks that last for days on end. There are some signs that the last week of January may be the coldest week of the winter so far as models are getting colder and colder air into the U.S…they might be doing it differently though.

The GFS long range data suggests a full-on Arctic invasion towards the last week. The EURO isn’t as dramatic, but is hinting as well about some real winter cold ahead to finish the month.

Our feature photo comes from Margot Zunick in Olathe of the freezing fog from the other day.

Joe

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