Joe’s Weather Blog: Unseasonable warmth will break Sunday (THU-12/2)

Weather Blog

Nice to be back to this beautiful weather in KC. It was gorgeous in AZ….I mean absolutely perfect. 50° at night and in the 80° range during the day. They too are running unseasonably warm and continue to be oh so dry. There is one town in the northern part of the city that is actually running out of water. They lose their water that is being brought in from Scottsdale next December. A disconcerting thought.

Around here…we too have really dried out. The last decent moisture that we’ve had was back on the 10th. October was wet…but it really has shut down.

Things may get a bit more active next week though.

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Forecast:

Tonight: Fair and cooler but still nice for December. Lows in the 40s

Tomorrow: Another great day with highs in the mid 60s

Saturday: A little cooler but still above average. Highs 50-55°

Sunday: Another cold front comes through later in the day. Blustery and mild with highs in the 50s

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Discussion:

Our annual Winter Weather Special is coming up on Saturday…11AM.

So now that we’ve flipped over to December…let’s look at what we in the weather world consider Fall. That would September through November.

Here are the temperature anomalies for the country.

and a closer look…note the change in the legend.

It was a TOP 30 warm fall for KC.

3rd warmest since 2000 too!

September was 3.4° above average…October was 3.3° above average and November was 2.9° above average.

So warm…and that’s how we start December too!

Precip wise…well not so great lately at least.

At least we had a wet October…

We finished with 8.74″ of moisture…all rain. That puts us in the middle of the last 130 years or so of records.

Next week will be different.

The main step is getting a stronger cold front…something that we’ve been lacking. One is coming later Sunday…that will usher in chillier weather on Monday…perhaps only near 40°.

Then there is a weak system coming on Tuesday afternoon…it may just be enough that we could get some snow out of it. It wouldn’t be much I don’t think…but conceivably it could be something for at least part of the area. Could it bring us our 1st accumulating snow (1/10″ or more)? We’ll see. the Canadian model is into it…and the EURO has at least something…the GFS is way warmer and has nothing.

It should be noted that the GFS ensembles are seeing something that the operational model isn’t seeing. It’s colder and perhaps a bit snowier.

As a matter of fact there are quite a few members that are seeing some accumulating snow. Some with less than 1/2″ (likely most melting) some with a bit more.

It’s worth monitoring at least…those 1st sticking snows (not including what happened back in November) are always a bit tricky around these parts.

It may be though, at least for now…only only chance of something wintry because behind that system…milder air may flow into the region again. Perhaps not 70° but still impressive by soon to be almost mid December standards. Take a look at this.

Temperature anomalies…

For the 9th through the 16th

Even if you wanted to push things farther along…

From the 13th through the 18th

The mass of cold air up in the NW part of Canada and into AK is more or less stuck for now. At some point it will dislodge just no real clear cut when.

The feature photo is from yours truly…on one of my walks out in Arizona.

Joe

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