Joe’s Weather Blog: Watching for storms (mostly east) (SUN-10/24)

Weather Blog

It’s Sunday and a warmer and muggier air mass is coming up into the KC area this morning. It will be short-lived though as it will be swept away this afternoon as a cold front rapidly moves through the area. The bigger storms should fire east of the Metro this afternoon…towards 65 highway into central MO and while it bears watching…odds favor the severe weather to stay towards the east of KC.

The next system is due in later Wednesday. That will be a rain maker it appears.

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Forecast:

Today: Clouds with scattered showers/storms possible this afternoon in KC with more coverage east of the Metro. Warmer with highs approaching the lower 70s by early afternoon then dropping into the 50 before sunset with gusty winds all day.

Tonight: Lots of clouds and chillier with lows in the lower 40s

Tomorrow: Clearing out and cool with highs in the mid 50s

Tuesday: Nice with highs in the 60s

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Discussion:

A strong storm is going to be moving through the region today. Attached to it is a warm front and a cold front.

9AM surface map

The storm will be moving through northern MO as the day goes…and the blue line (the cold front) will sweep through the area around between 1-3PM or so. That will allow the cooler air to start moving into the area with west and northwest winds increasing during the mid to late afternoon.

So ahead of the front we should warm up nicely…this morning temperatures are in the 70° range on the south side and near 60 on the north side of the Metro. That warmer air mass will spread northwards this morning.

In reality that blue line in MO should be farther south closer to I-70…but you get the point.

Dew points are in the 60s on the south side of the Metro…so it feels like spring in parts of KC this morning.

The storm itself will continue eastbound today and move through NW MO. As it does so we’ll initially warm up to an extent today, although clouds will hinder things for a bit…then as the front hits more instability towards the east of the KC Metro…stronger storms should fire up after 3PM. These storms are likely to be more potent several counties east of KC. Here is a look at what the HRRR model thinks from 1PM to 10PM today.

The latest SPC forecast has an enhanced risk of severe storms east of the KC area.

There may well be a few showers or storms locally with the front…in scattered fashion…but this mornings data continues the eastward thoughts…and this was communicated on Friday with the data trends, not only with the overnight storm threat but also with the storm threat this afternoon (in terms of the more severe risks).

Central and eastern MO are certainly more under the gun it appears…

Also of note this morning is the massive storm off the west coast…one of the strongest on record out there.

This ties the strongest known storm in that part of the world…going back to 1977!

By the way…#3 on the list was a storm from earlier this week!

It’s been a fascinating week for Pacific storms marching eastwards as the blog detailed earlier in the week.

A piece of this storm will break off and create our next change for Wednesday.

More on this tomorrow.

The feature photo of the day is from DeAnna Blair

Joe

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