Joe’s Weather World: A wavering front again…that means rain (SUN-5/5)

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A pretty fabulous weekend out there. Yesterday was just about perfect and we deserved it after all the rain last week…and today will be pretty good too. We will have more clouds in the region today and a bit more wind as well. There is an outside shot of a shower/storm but it’s not really to obvious who has the better chance right now. The week coming is again going to be wet…at least into Wednesday night and early Thursday.

Temperatures will be all over the place again this week…up then down then back up again…then down for a few days. All because of a front that will move through…then retreat north..then move through finally on Thursday. With that front comes the chance of more moderate to heavy rains…and perhaps some severe weather.

  • Forecast:

Today: Variable clouds…breezy in the afternoon and warmer with highs in the 70s

Tonight: There may be some scattered showers/storms out there overnight…perhaps some of the storms will have some small-ish hail with them as well. Lows in the 50s to near 60°

Monday: Some morning storms around as well. A front will move through later Monday afternoon into Monday night. Storm chances will increase with that. Sort of an iffy day overall with temperatures that may fluctuate. Highs should be well into the 70s ahead of the front but drop pretty sharply behind the front towards evening. It will be a cooler day across northern MO…

Tuesday: Cooler for sure…potentially only in the 50s(!) IF we’re really in the cool air but if we may get some sunshine we could pop into the 60s.

  • Discussion:

So another week of some moderate to heavy rains are likely. This isn’t exactly the same type of set-up but it’s sort of a sister set-up to what we went though last week. A front will be coming through Monday night…then settling south Tuesday…then retreating north Wednesday…then pushing back through Thursday.

There are some differences aloft though, especially when it comes to the low level jet stream after tomorrow but once again there is going to be a lot of atmospheric moisture for the storms to tap into and that spells the likelihood of more heavy rains in the region…and again some may get well over 2″ or so. Overall I’m expecting another 1-4″ of rain in the area this week through Thursday morning.

This past week we had widespread 3-7″ or so.

The front that will be the key to all this will get it’s act together later today and tomorrow morning while pushing southwards out of the northern Plains.

That front will push towards the south today and tonight…also tonight a developing low level jet stream will again provide lift and moisture to the atmosphere and that means storms should develop overnight in parts of the area.

These storms can produce some hail…so I wouldn’t be shocked IF there are a few severe warnings tonight for that aspect of things.

Then Monday we’re sort of in the waiting game to some degree. There may be storms around in the morning…those storms could lay down some rain-cooled boundaries that, in time, could create some new storms. There will be the front mentioned above that should get closer to the region Monday afternoon/night. We should destabilize ahead of the front and it doesn’t appear as if we’ll be capped to strongly on the south side at least so storms are likely and some of those storms may be severe in spots especially more towards the south of the Metro. Maybe not a widespread situation but storms in may with decent instability have to be at least respected for potential. Hail and wind are the main threats tomorrow…although the higher threat may be more towards the SE KS…we’ll see about that.

The front on Tuesday gets shoved all the way down to the I-44 corridor. Temperatures may stay in the 50s IF we don’t get any sunshine Tuesday…60s are doable with at least variable clouds. IF we’re fighting rain…we’ll stay in the 50s. The big difference Tuesday though is that this time there won’t be strong winds from the south to the north overrunning the surface front towards I-44. So the rain situation Tuesday is a bit murky especially in the PM hours. It may be more misty/drizzly type weather Tuesday with scattered showers.

Then as an upper level wave comes out of the western part of the country on Wednesday the front will rapidly be pushed back northwards. Let’s see how far north it comes…there are differences in the guidance and how quickly a surface storm comes with all of this. The NAM has the surface storm near the KC area by midday Wednesday (looks too fast to me) while other guidance has this coming through towards Wednesday evening which would allow some more instability to build up. Even then though this isn’t clear cut because IF the storm is not up to the I-70 corridor…IF it’s more towards Wichita and moving more eastbound…then there would be a question about how far north the warm air really gets…so it’s a very murky severe weather set-up but it is a rainy set-up…and that’s the issue overall for the week…more rain.

Again some could easily see more than these totals above through Thursday AM at least.

So the severe weather risks…as I see them…

Monday morning..small

Monday afternoon…possible…mainly south of Metro it appears right now.

Tuesday: No

Wednesday morning: small

Wednesday afternoon: possible

Our feature photo comes from Jennifer Allwood of the stunning rainbow after all that rain last week on the north-side of KC.

No blog tomorrow I don’t think right now…I’m going to try and help out with a golf tournament in Spring Hill.


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