Joe’s Weather World: An amazing coincidence just happened (TUE-10/20)

Weather Blog

The weather constantly amazes me. We’ve been in a very interesting temperature regime for the last few weeks with a lot of ups and downs. The rain though has been almost non-existent although there were some showers around today…KCI officially had just a trace of moisture so the “dry” spell goes for another day.

There were some real rains though out there towards the S/SE of KC mostly. Some isolated 1/4″ totals were towards the SE of KC proper towards Harrisonville>Warrensburg and southeast from there.

It couldn’t been worse though…it snowed today in MN and WI…and more than a flurry. Another area of 2-9″ feel towards Minneapolis, MN and eastbound. A record for so early in the “season” and their 2nd biggest storm in October history. Yesterday it was central IA that got nailed with a swath of heavy snow.

More on the coincidence part in the discussion.

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Forecast:

Wednesday: Some parts of the area may start with some patchy dense fog…especially from KC northwards. Then mostly cloudy skies with midday and afternoon showers possible as warmer air slowly comes north. Another chilly day ahead with 40s into the early afternoon before we start to nudge into the 50-55° range late in day.

Wednesday night: The warm front will surge through the region as the mid>late evening moves along. Temperatures will rise into the 60s by daybreak Thursday as the winds increase from the south.

Thursday: Windy with gusts near 40-45 mph and warmer! Partly cloudy skies. Rain chances increase after 9PM or so.

Friday: Any lingering rain ends early in the morning then partly cloudy and blustery with highs struggling in the 50° range. It will feel colder because of blustery winds.

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Discussion:

So about the coincidence. Remember about 70 days ago that big derecho…up in central IA. New information came out about it over the weekend indicating that it ended up doing 7.5 BILLION dollars in damage to crops and property. Astounding really.

So as we step back and look at the 2-9″ snowstorm that hit central IA yesterday…I thought to myself…was it the same area that got it by the derecho?

Well sort of YES!

Now it didn’t go as far east…and in reality the thunderstorm complex was a “bigger” in scale event…but isn’t that amazing? Oh and by the way, while some snow was expected up there…mostly it was an 1″ or less type forecast from what I saw…this business is humbling.

Today it was MN and WI getting nailed…

and here is a close up of Minneapolis, MN

That is quite the storm.

Quite the interesting last couple of days.

Onwards…

The warm front that will pop through the area seemingly is running about 6 hours late tomorrow…so that means another gray and chilly day with the potential of rain and maybe a couple of storms after 10AM or so. That also means a slower warm-up tomorrow…in time tomorrow night into Thursday morning we should warm up rather quickly.

The we start warm on Thursday with increasing winds from the south. Those winds may gust again to near 50 MPH in the afternoon…for the 2nd time in the past week or so. Another coincidence! We should end up near 85°.

Then the cold front comes in…the timing sometime between 7PM and 12AM it appears and that will send temperatures down from whatever we are on Friday at 12AM to near 40° by daybreak with only a slow recovery in the afternoon with blustery north winds.

Saturday is OK.

Then it becomes one hot mess. A big dip in the jet stream will come out of western Canada and drop into the northern Rockies. What happens from there is where things get very muddled. A surface storm in the Rockies will develop (Denver looks nasty for the game Sunday…cold with snow possible)…and where that storm goes will determine the mess coming our way.

Models are a hot mess with this. The GFS model takes the storm into the southern Plains with cold air pouring southwards down the central Plains. That’s what you think it is again towards I-80.

The GFS has temperatures falling Sunday into the 30s.

So the EURO says…wait a second. It thinks the storm comes east through the I-70 corridor…and warm air surges northwards Sunday.

So much so that temperatures on Sunday that model are…wait for it…approaching 70°. What’s 30° difference.

Then they have another piece coming our way for Monday into Tuesday of next week that would likely be a cold rain but just rain.

The ensembles of each model…usually helpful in this situation indicate via the GFS ensembles about a 20-30% chance of at least 1″ of snow…whereas the EURO says nothing. The Canadian which is typically a snow machine also has nothing. The EURO may be digging this next dip of the jet stream wayyyy to far south…hence we get into a lot of warm air ahead of that dip.

My current feeling is that the GFS is way too cold and the EURO is way too warm. I just think all the model data is freaking out. So I essentially split the difference.

I’m putting a chilly rain in the forecast for Sunday and Monday. At this point getting snow I think is premature for our area…but again as I talked about on the news tonight it can happen in October. Last year 3 of the last 4 days of October had snow…then in 2018…in mid October we had 2 days with snow.

When I look back at last late October there are definite similarities in the snow creation then to what some model data shows for the end of the weekend and early next week. If it snowed then…it’s conceivable that something weird can happen. It will depend on how whatever digs into the SW comes out into the Plains.

I’ve downloaded some of the maps from last year…and may do a compare contrast thing tomorrow on the blog…but there are definite parallels that have my attention.

The feature photo comes from Vicki Anderson Dolt out in Lawson, MO

Joe

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