Joe’s Weather World: Incoming system “mostly” stays south (WED-12/2)

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Countdown to the Big Game! #RUNITBACK
February 07 2021 05:30 pm

We got to enjoy a fabulous 1st day of December and really today won’t be that bad either, at least from a temperature standpoint. Yesterday we hit 51°…today we should be close to that although we will have more clouds for awhile today so the skies won’t be as deep and blue as they were yesterday.

Got some great sunset pictures last night too…it was a spectacular one…and the sunrise this morning wasn’t too bad either.

The system that we’ve been tracking has been edging farther and farther south on the last few model runs. Last night I was showing this trend and today is more or less about the same. We may get something from this but odds are more heavily in the camp of the Metro getting very little in the end. Don’t cancel plans for tomorrow. This was my stressed point last night and still is based on the new data this morning at least.

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Forecast:

Today: Partly cloudy and pleasant. Highs in the 50° range

Tonight: Increasing overnight clouds. A light rain or mix is possible towards sunrise, especially south of KC. Lows in the low>mid 30s

Tomorrow: A wintry mix is possible, again higher chances south of KC. We may see sunshine by the end of the day with highs well into the 30s. At this point in KC no accumulations are expected.

Friday: Nicer. With highs well into the 40s.

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Discussion:

The system that we’ve been tracking is going to turn into a nice snowmaker…but just not for us. Areas towards southern KC and OK should get a nice snow from this…but for us…not much is expected it appears. There is just too much dry air…to little “forcing” and weak disturbances coming up the State Line to change a lot of the 2 things mentioned. IF something a bit more organized can come up the State Line…then maybe we can still get some sort of dusting from this…but there shouldn’t be too many impacts to things tomorrow morning locally.

Areas from southern KS to OK though…should get something more appreciative.

For the most part the system in question looks to be taking out it’s best snow production in OK…but we’ll need to watch southern KS as well.

6-12+” is likely with the OK Panhandle region seemingly the most likely area for the heaviest snows.

I don’t necessarily want to re-write everything from yesterday about why this isn’t going to be much for the KC area. So see yesterday’s blog for additional details on the reasoning.

The 12Z HRRR shows this outcome…notice how most of the precip stays south.

Not too exciting.

The morning hi-res NAM has come out as well…about the same.

So while not quite ready to pull the plug on this…it’s not looking so great for much activity around here. There still may be something but by the end of the day we’ll probably be closer to 40°.

After that a whole bunch of nothing aside from some dry cold fronts it appears and potentially a nice warm-up for a day or two next week in between fronts.

Would I be shocked if we make a run towards 60? Nope. Let’s watch Tuesday and next Wednesday for this opportunity. Doing this is tougher in December but there will be downsloping flow and bubbles of warmer air aloft streaming through. The key is getting both to happen during the day and not in the middle of the night when it won’t do us much good!

There isn’t anything too exciting after this for about 10 days…we’ll see perhaps a more active scenario set up towards mid December.

So many great feature shots came in yesterday so it’s tough to choose the picture for today but since I love drone shots…how about this one from Ben towards Lees Summit, MO

Joe

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