Joe’s Weather World: Missing out on round 1 of big rain chances (THU-7/9)

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In the end things happened the way I thought they would…but I was nervous around 1AM this morning as I was bout to go to bed. There was a raging line of storms coming towards the region. It hadn’t made a SSE turn at that point. It was producing lots of 50-70 MPH straight line winds as it was moving through northern KS and southern NE.

I noticed on the satellite pictures though the the tops of the clouds were coming down…indicating some weakening starting to happen. I also saw just barely a hint at a SSE turn. Those MCS clusters (MCS stands for Mesoscale Convective System) are tricky sometimes. Last night was one of the tricky ones for sure. IF you watched at 9/10 we stressed that we may not get much rain from this in the end…and the the higher risk of stronger winds would be west of the Metro.

Like I said at 1AM I was nervous about all of the above. Glad the forecast was mostly right in the end.

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Forecast:

Today: Gradual clearing and warm. Not as hot as yesterday (94°) but still well into the 80s. Lighter winds.

Tonight: Fair skies and mild with lows in the upper 60s

Tomorrow: Partly cloudy and hotter again with highs in the lower 90s

Saturday: Storms are possible through early afternoon. Highs in the 80s

Sunday: Seasonable with highs well into the 80s

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Discussion:

So most of the rain, aside from about 1/10″ or so was west of the area overnight and this morning.

Doppler estimates are pretty decent out there. 1/2″-2″ totals from near Topeka westbound.

Here is a look at what I was worried about at 1AM when this loop starts…but notice how the storms start to weaken as the outflow (rain cooled air represented by the thin blue line ahead of the storms) spreads farther away from the core of the storms…so the storms started to ingest that same rain cooled air…and that helped to weaken them farther.

So it rained in the area that I expected…from the Metro westbound…but the amounts weren’t too great at all. That was opportunity #1 for moisture that sort of failed KC. Opportunity #2 comes Saturday…that one, if it doesn’t bear out well for you, may create issues down the road because we are going to get very hot here starting Tuesday of next week.

Today the short term models are really trying to heat us up again. I’m not sure they are correct. The models show highs today into the 90s in the area…but we’re going to have a lot of clouds for awhile…through lunch or so and that should keep us more into the 80s.

Tomorrow it gets hot again.

Then on Saturday morning another disturbance moves through the northern Plains with an extension dropping down through eastern NE and SW IA. That is our last sort of hope for rain for awhile it appears. It’s not a slam dun either because there may be a somewhat stronger cap building into the area as this happens…and perhaps shunting the storms farther towards northern MO and NE MO.

The EURO model shows us getting a pretty good wallop from the storms, while the NAM shows the worst of the storms farther NE of KC proper. The GFS sort of is like the overnight NAM model with the heavier storms NE of the Metro…I think we’d still get something but it isn’t as favorable in that model data. The GFS also builds in some pretty warm mid-level temperatures helping to sort of cap up us to some extent.

It’s not a Grade A set-up for KC but again it certainly is worth a high chance rain right now in the forecast. These MCS clusters are really tough on the model forecasts, especially from a couple of days out…typically like last night it comes down to watching radar as the storms evolve and then getting an idea of the environment that they are moving towards.

I bring this up because we are drying out…and the “abnormally” dry conditions are now starting to encroach into more of the viewing area with areas south of KC starting to see “moderate drought” conditions develop.

IF we don’t get some decent rain on Saturday morning…this may expand somewhat…especially in far western MO.

Let’s hope the EURO model is accurate in in’s idea about rain amounts on Saturday.

and not the NAM model…

My feature photo comes from Glenn Hemberger in Leawood. Stunning shot of the moon the other day!

Joe

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