Joe’s Weather World: Quick hitting rains and lots of wind ahead (THU-10/17)

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Another great fall day coming towards KC…and while the breeze will be increasing this afternoon…the winds start to crank up overnight and especially tomorrow. Wind is caused by differences in air pressure in the atmosphere…whether here at the surface or above us. The bigger the difference the bigger the air movement…hence the wind. Over the next 5 days there will be a lot of variation in the air pressure…that means a lot of wind. Air also moves from higher pressure to lower pressure and we’ll be seeing that as well through Tuesday of next week.

So we know about the wind…and I have a pretty good idea about the rain…and with some luck…most, if not all the rain, at least in the KC Metro area westwards will occur at night, not impacting your daytime plans.

  • Forecast:

Today: Sunny and mild…really seasonable with highs in the upper 60s

Tonight: Increasing winds and not as cool as this morning…lows closer to 50° or higher if the winds increase fast enough.

Friday: Windy…gusts to 40 MPH possible (maybe higher in spots) and mostly sunny. Warmer with highs 75-80°

Friday night: Rain chances after 12AM Saturday…

Saturday: Rain ends near or before daybreak from KC westwards…highs well into the 60s

Sunday: Windy again and mild with highs near 70°…rain/storm chances increase at night.

  • Discussion:

I’ve always felt that the best 6 weeks of weather is roughly from September 5th to about October 20th or so. Sure there are some clunkers in there but overall to me…with the more comfortable weather and the lower humidity I really think it’s pretty nice to be outside overall.

Some years that’s extended a bit more into the last week of October…other years not so much. The big picture appears to show some rather chilly air heading towards the end of the month for at least a 2-3 days. Whether that comes in before Halloween and we’re moderating in time for trick or treating…or it lingers into Halloween itself remains to be seen…but I think some colder weather is increasing likely heading towards next weekend (the 26th+)

Before that though…lots of changes.

The 1st weak front will move in Saturday AM and will shift the strong south winds towards the NW. Winds on Friday are going to be strong…perhaps being underestimated by some. Indications are just above the surface we’ll 45-55 MPH winds cranking. The sunshine should be in abundance…and during this time of the year that promotes a lot of “mixing”. I talk about this a lot in the blog and sometimes on the air.

As the sun heats the land the air rises…you can see this when looking down a stretch of pavement on a sunny day…and you can see the air rising essentially. This rising air “mixes/blends” with the air just above the surface and attempts to become more uniform. This results in surging temperatures sometimes. In reality the air above us would support highs into the 80s…but I don’t want to o that warm yet because the winds will have a bit more of a southerly component as opposed to a SW angle…I’ve noticed here in the KC area that that tends to cut our potential somewhat.

Regardless…the A/C’s may be clicking on again Friday afternoon with the warmer weather.

Furnace weather one morning…A/C weather in the afternoon…yup it must be fall in the Plains.

These strong south winds will increase the dew points to near or above 50°. That’s OK but not crazy high…and with a front coming into that moisture on Saturday early morning…and with the atmosphere not overly unstable…tough to see we get a lot of rain out of this set-up. The front itself isn’t overly strong either…we should pop to near 65-70° Saturday afternoon.

So yes to some rain…but not a lot of lot of it..and with the progressive nature of things…hopefully the rain is out of here near daybreak, or before on Saturday…which if that works out…we clear out during the AM and the afternoon is really nice.

Then on Sunday we sort of do the whole thing all over again…but this time there will be a more vigorous and stronger surface storm moving through the upper Midwest. Remember the tidbit I mentioned this morning…air travels from higher pressure to lower pressure. More vigorous storm…means a stronger low pressure area…that means more air traveling and circulating into the storm from the Plains region…that means more wind again.

We’ll get the dew points a bit higher with this more vigorous storm in the upper Plains and the stronger cold front means a sharper contrast of air masses…so depending on how things set-up…there may be some 1/4″-1″ rains coming.

We could use the moisture to some degree…at least for the yards. This great fall weather will tend to dry out the surface moisture rather quickly…and when you add in the winds…it dries things out even more.

Then Monday will be a blustery and somewhat cool day…winds will make it feel cooler.

Tuesday will be cool…

Then we warm up on Wednesday before turning cooler later in the week…I will tell you…don’t think it’s right…and it’s really done a huge swing in the last 24 hours…but the EURO model is trying it’s darnedest to crank out some flakes next Friday AM and then it went off the rains after that with a unusually strong southern Plains storm that has the whole 9 yards…snow/rain. I’d post the maps but it’s really an outlier and since this is October…I’ll refrain for now. During the winter though…that would be more interesting. The other models don’t really do it and in the case of the GFS…the differences are really stark.

Anyway…I see it and will see IF the model reverses itself (it likely will).

Our feature photo comes from Chip Houser…pretty shot.


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