Joe’s Weather World: Rare 1st week of August coolness (MON-8/3)

Weather Blog

Good Monday to you…glorious weather out there with temperatures this morning in the 50s to start the day. The record is 54° set back in 1974. So no record today but we’ll make a run at some potential record record values over the next few days.

This type of cool start to the month is unusual. It’s the hottest time of the year on average, and we’ve had it pretty good for the last couple of days with more to come through Wednesday. It will get warmer as the late week and especially the weekend moves along. At some point rain will return as well when we make that transition back to the warmer weather.

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Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny and perfect for early August (or any day really). Highs in the mid 70s with low humidity.

Tonight: Clear and crisp! Lows in the mid 50s with 40s in some of the outlying areas

Tomorrow: Nice with highs in the mid > upper 70s

Wednesday: Ditto.

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Discussion:

The next decent rain chance appears to be on Friday…perhaps Thursday in some areas. More on this in Wednesday’s blog.

Till then…wonderful for summer standards…lower dew points mean comfortable air. Unusual coolness (70s) considering the sunshine expected is also a contributor to some of the nicest weather we can want during the summer or really any day.

Temperatures (in red) as we start the day are now up into the 60s…

So let’s start with the record lows over the next few days…

Tuesday…

Wednesday…

Thursday…

So two 52° mornings and 1 55° morning. It will be close…not sure if we get there or not but we’ll be in the neighborhood barring any clouds which are possible in this cool flow of air.

At 1PM today the GFS model has these anomalies for early August…with the core…some 25° below average located in eastern MO.

It wouldn’t shock me IF there were clouds and rain all over the place…but at least for most of central/western MO and elsewhere there’s sunshine today.

The reason…a deep trough or significant dip (by August standards) across the Great Lakes extending down into the eastern Plains.

As that dip flattens and moves east later in the week more seasonable August heat will then start to expand into the Plains again…the transition will be THU>FRI and we should get some rain/storms from this.

That small little thing towards South Carolina is Isaias…which stayed off the coast of FL over the weekend and really, aside from some wind and a bit of rain wasn’t as bad as it could’ve been. Isaias has had a tough time maintaining itself. On Saturday morning it really started to suck in drier air…then shear took it’s toll which was good for Florida…then it tried to sort of rebound a couple of times…it’s sort of messy.

Still a strong tropical storm though…and really there isn’t a difference between a strong tropical storm and a low end hurricane…

It’ll be a wind maker and rain maker for the eastern seaboard as the storm interacts with the dip in the jet stream. In some cases the two together can enhance the rain making potential.

So there’s that…

Back to July…we had our 5th wettest in KC history…out west though it was really hot and dry. Phoenix had their hottest July in their weather history. It was also very dry. The monsoon was essentially missing for most of the month…and that lack of monsoonal flow of moisture affected a broad area of the west. Here are the 30 day anomalies…wet n the Plains…dry west of the Rockies.

The month of August may not be the best either for them…

Let’s extend this out to 90 days…and bring it back into the Plains…there are a couple of areas in IA and SE KS that have been very dry.

OK so that should do it for the day…enjoy the fabulous weather and do something outside! The feature photo today is from Patrick McCarthy…

Joe

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